[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271629
SWODY1
SPC AC 271628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
WAL 10 S RIC 10 SE SHD 20 WNW MRB 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP 20 S LRD
...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10
NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW
U17 20 S VEL 40 NNW LAR 45 NNE DGW 50 ENE BIL 45 N HVR ...CONT... 60
W ANJ 15 SSW CWA 15 NNE SPW 30 NW SUX 15 NE BUB 20 S IML 15 NW CAO
45 WNW TCC 55 SSE SAF 35 ENE ONM 15 NNW ALM 25 S CNM 40 SE BGS 30
ENE SEP 25 SE FYV 15 NNW ARG EVV 15 E ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG
20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO ERN MAINE....

...MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN IL/LOWER MI AREA AS OF MID
MORNING WILL EJECT ENEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TODAY AS ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD NRN MN/WRN
ONTARIO BY TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG AN AXIS
FROM DRT TO MEM TO ROC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD TODAY AS A WEAK
WAVE ON THE FRONT /N OF UCA/ DEVELOPS ENEWD TOWARD DOWN EAST MAINE
BY EARLY TONIGHT.  A PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH  EXTENDS SWD FROM ERN NY
TO ERN VA/NC.  CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 70-75
F FROM THE GULF STATES TO NEW ENGLAND. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES FROM 1500 J/KG
ACROSS ERN MAINE TO ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE GULF STATES.  LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH SWD EXTENT TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC.  IT APPEARS THAT THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDE/ORIENTATION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS NEAR THE COLD FRONT...AND PERHAPS A MARGINAL SUPERCELL
THREAT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. 

...MN/SE ND THIS AFTERNOON...
A COMPLEX SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES ARE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND DAKOTAS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION/TROUGH ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN. E OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F WILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  GIVEN THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE SURFACE
TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

...FRONT RANGE OF CO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 45-50 F AND AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000
J/KG IN A NARROW CORRIDOR E OF THE FRONT RANGE.  MODEST VERTICAL
SHEAR/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SSE MOVING STORMS WITH SOME SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

...DESERT SW...
RELATIVELY RICH MOISTURE /LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
AZ INTO EXTREME SE CA/SRN NV.  DEEP LAYER FLOW IS WEAK OVER THIS
AREA...THUS ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
DOWNBURST WINDS.

..THOMPSON/GUYER.. 07/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.