[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271235
SWODY1
SPC AC 271234

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2005

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
WAL 20 E RIC 40 NE CHO 20 NNE HGR 35 N MSV 20 ESE LEB 25 S HUL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE ANJ 30 NE VOK
SPW 30 SSW IML 20 S RTN 15 NNW ABQ 25 SE TCS 20 WSW GDP 65 NNE BGS
25 SSE OKC 15 N BLV 30 E TOL ...CONT... 40 SSE VCT 35 NW LRD
...CONT... 10 ENE CZZ 35 WSW TRM 30 SE BFL 45 E FAT 25 WSW BIH 10
NNE BIH 45 ESE BIH 55 NNE NID 25 S DRA 55 NE LAS 35 SSW BCE 30 NNW
U17 20 S VEL 40 E RWL 35 NNE CPR 25 W SHR 55 WNW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE 4BK 15 SSW EUG
20 S PDX 35 SE DLS 75 N 4LW 25 S LMT 45 WNW MHS 30 ENE 4BK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DELMARVA ACROSS MID
ATLANTIC AND SRN/ERN NEW ENGLAND...

...CHESAPEAKE INTO NEW ENGLAND...
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW EJECTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT
STEADILY EWD AND MOVE ALONG OR OFF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY THIS EVENING. AIR MASS WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VERY MOIST
AND BECOME QUITE BUOYANT THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG PRE-FRONTAL
HEATING BOOSTING MLCAPES INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE FROM VA
POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN ME.  IN ADDITION...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM NRN VA/MD INTO SERN NY WHERE A TRIPLE
POINT LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND NEAR THE N-S
ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY MID DAY. 
MODERATE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
LINES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS... WITH STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION
INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTH THEY DEVELOP INTO STRONG WLY FLOW
ALOFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
20-25 KT OVER THE DELMARVA...INCREASING TO NEAR 40 KT ACROSS ERN NEW
ENGLAND.  COMBINATION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM STRONG
HEATING AND LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES INDICATES MAIN THREAT WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS SEVERAL
COMPLEXES/LINES SPREAD TOWARDS THE NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS...
STRONG...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SEWD ACROSS SRN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL OVERSPREAD ND AND THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  SURFACE TROUGH/REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY ESEWD OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INHIBIT INSTABILITY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.  IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS AND MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS FROM STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...SRN AZ...
MID LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN AND
ALLOW MODEST ENELY FLOW ALOFT TO OVERSPREAD SRN AZ TODAY.  MORNING
SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST
WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG AND WEST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IN ADDITION...12Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATED MID
LEVELS ALSO REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND WILL SUPPORT INCREASED STORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MODEST STEERING FLOW SHOULD CARRY STORMS
WSWWD OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
ATTENDANT THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG/GUSTY WINDS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 07/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.