[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260521
SWODY1
SPC AC 260519

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
PBG 10 SSW ALB 15 ENE ABE 20 SSW PAH 20 NE FYV 40 WSW JLN 45 NE CNU
10 NE MMO 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 W HOU 25
W ESF 35 W MLU 25 N SHV 10 N TYR 45 WNW AUS 30 SE DRT ...CONT... CZZ
30 N RAL 45 ENE NID 50 NE DRA SGU 25 W 4BL 20 WSW GJT 50 SSE RKS 50
NNW CPR 60 N GGW ...CONT... INL 55 S FAR 30 N PIR 20 S BFF 45 NW AKO
20 NE LIC 45 NE LAA 40 N DDC 30 NNE RSL 15 SE DBQ 20 WNW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN
MO...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER NRN ONTARIO SWWD INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO QUEBEC. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL LOWER MI AT 26/12Z WILL
DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH OH VALLEY INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  

...ERN NY SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO...
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FROM VICINITY OF LOWER MI
SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT INTO KS. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG/ WITHIN INFLOW AIR
MASS WILL SUPPORT STORM INTENSIFICATION AND/OR REDEVELOPMENT BY
AFTERNOON FROM NY SWWD INTO THE OH AND MID MS VALLEY. STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY
INTO NY BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET AXES.
HERE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING AND/OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SW OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL/SRN MO...STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TO THE N ACROSS POST-FRONTAL
AIR MASS. NONETHELESS...DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS.

...OK WWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ALONG
COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD THROUGH REGION...AS WELL AS IN POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME FROM CO FRONT RANGE SWD INTO CNTRL NM. STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 10000-2000 J/KG/ AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH
WEAKER INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED IN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. PRIMARY
FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS AXIS OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY.

..MEAD/CROSBIE.. 07/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.