[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260028
SWODY1
SPC AC 260026

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

VALID 260100Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ESE
MTC 15 NE MFD 30 SW FDY 15 NE BMI 35 WNW UIN 10 SSE FLV 35 NE DDC 45
NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 25 WNW LIC 15 ESE FCL 40 ENE CYS 20 NNW LBF 25 ESE
BBW OLU 50 NE MSP 45 SE ANJ.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
HTS 35 NNW SSU 20 S LBE 25 ESE AOO 15 W BWI 35 NNE RIC 40 S RIC 15
ESE DAN 45 WNW GSO 30 SE 5I3 25 NW 5I3 25 SSW HTS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 45 NW MLS
35 N DIK 40 E DVL 40 E TVF 45 WNW CMX 65 ENE CMX 15 SE ANJ
...CONT... 30 SSE LRD 25 SE CRP 45 NW BPT 10 NNW GGG 15 ENE PGO SGF
15 S CNU 10 WSW ICT 25 ESE GAG 40 ESE PVW 25 NNW MAF 90 SSW P07
...CONT... 15 SW CZZ 35 WNW TRM 60 WSW DRA 60 N DRA 45 NNW P38 25
SSE DPG 50 NNE BPI 60 SW MQM 55 WNW 27U 65 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW PIE 10 NE VRB
...CONT... 20 ESE ILM 45 NW FLO 25 NW CAE 25 ENE MCN 20 E ABY 30 ENE
AQQ ...CONT... 65 N BUF 10 NNE BUF JHW 25 WSW BFD 15 NNW DUJ 10 NW
AVP 20 NNW POU 30 NNE PBG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW JAN 30 W TCL 10
NW LOZ 35 N SDF 45 ENE MVN 25 ENE POF 20 ENE LIT 35 N MLU 30 NW JAN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE
DELMARVA...

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS NEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW SE OF RST WITH ATTENDANT
WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI INTO SRN LOWER MI.
MEANWHILE...TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD THROUGH E-CNTRL NEB
AND INTO E-CNTRL CO. ALOFT...EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PLAN
VIEW VWP/PROFILER PLOT SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRANSLATING ENEWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
MODESTLY STRONG /I.E. 30-40 KTS/ WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM ERN
NEB/SERN SD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.

NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT
OVER SERN MN INTO CNTRL/NRN MN...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED
MID-LEVEL ROTATION OWING TO LOCALLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR N OF
FRONTAL ZONE. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WHILE
RESIDING IN ZONE OF STRONGER SHEAR AHEAD OF RETREATING WARM FRONT
AND MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION OF MORE LEWP-TYPE
STRUCTURE FROM E OF MSP SWD TO THE IA BORDER SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A BOW ECHO ON COOL SIDE OF WARM FRONT WHICH
WOULD PROPAGATE EWD WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD
INTO LOWER MI OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE SW...SOLID CONVECTIVE LINE HAS FORMED ALONG TRAILING
COLD FRONT FROM N-CNTRL IA INTO N-CNTRL KS. STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITHIN IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS COUPLED WITH
ORGANIZING/MERGING COLD POOLS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
DAMAGING WINDS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND NERN KS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MOST
INTENSE STORMS.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA...
LONG-LIVED MCS HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO AS
IT ENCOUNTERED HIGHER ELEVATION OF WV. MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT EWD TO CHESAPEAKE BAY MAY
SUPPORT STORM REDEVELOPMENT OR REINTENSIFICATION ALONG LEADING EDGE
OF MCS GUST FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST WITH
STRONGEST STORMS IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD.. 07/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.