[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251252
SWODY1
SPC AC 251251

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE
MTC 25 W JXN 25 SSE CGX 30 ESE BRL 15 SSW STJ 30 N DDC 30 S LIC 25
NNW FCL 30 NNW SNY 15 N LBF 35 NNW BUB 30 NNE PIR 55 NE ABR 40 NNE
MSP 40 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT
35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE
LEX 15 NE MVN 10 ENE CNU 30 NE CSM 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25
WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN
70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 40 W RRT 45 N BJI 45 W HIB 50 E DLH 50
NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING
ALONG A LINE FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NERN NEB AND THEN WSWWD INTO
NERN CO BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP OVER NERN NEB/FAR SERN SD AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA AND INTO WI LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  IN ADDITION...ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG H25 JET
WILL OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS
WILL ENHANCE SSWLY LLJ WITH NOSE OF 35-40 KT H85 JET DEVELOPING INTO
IA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL INCREASE TO 50+ KT AS IT VEERS AND
NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.  OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SET-UP WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
ESPECIALLY AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE
TODAY. PRIMARY NEGATIVE ATTM REMAINS ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION 
OVER WRN IA/SRN MN AND ITS EFFECTS ON AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION/WARM
FRONT LOCATION TODAY.  CONVECTION MAY REINFORCE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
TOO FAR SOUTH OVER IA FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS TO UTILIZE STRONGER
WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS OF
ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...SEVERE
THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH STORMS SPREADING OUT OF/ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AS HEATING WEAKENS CAP AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
FORM INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH 40-50 KT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE FROM ERN NEB/SERN SD INTO IA/SRN MN DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND LLJ
INCREASES.  ONCE CAPPING BREAKS...ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE QUICKLY
AND ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 3000+ J/KG MLCAPE.  LARGE SCALE
PATTERN SUPPORTS MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER IA/SRN MN LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING.  THOUGH STRONG SR-INFLOW AND MODEST/UNIFORM WLY FLOW AT
MID/UPPER LEVELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR HP-SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO
DEVELOPMENT...QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT STORMS REMAINING ELEVATED OVER
THIS REGION.  IF ACTIVITY CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
AND NORTH OF E-W WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BOW ECHO COULD
DEVELOP AND RACE ENEWD WITH PRONOUNCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT TOWARDS
THE WRN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  MDT RISK MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THIS SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD. 
REGARDLESS...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 2000+ J/KG MUCAPE WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL SPREADING FROM THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
FRONT WILL LIKELY SLOW/STALL INTO SWRN NEB/NERN CO LATER TODAY AND
SHOULD FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORM-CLUSTERS WITH THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ALONG COLD FRONT AS
IT SURGES SSEWD AFTER DARK...WITH ATTENDANT RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO NRN KS/NWRN MO.

...MID ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND...
12Z SOUNDING AT ALB INDICATED FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FOR 1000+
J/KG MUCAPE.  REGION REMAINS AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF QUEBEC...AND
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL WEAKEN SURFACE CAP
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. 
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WNWLY FLOW ALOFT AND PRESENCE OF A MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
INTO ERN/SRN NEW ENGLAND.

FARTHER SOUTH...MID ATLANTIC/CHESAPEAKE REGION REMAINS STABILIZED IN
WAKE OF OVERNIGHT MCS. HOWEVER...STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.