[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250548
SWODY1
SPC AC 250546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 E
MTC 15 WNW CLE 35 NNW DAY 20 SW DNV 15 W UIN 30 N DDC 30 SSE LIC 25
WNW LAR 35 NNE CPR 60 ENE MBG 40 NE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW DRT 35 S SJT
35 E ABI 30 WSW PRX 15 N CBM 50 NW AHN 30 WSW HSS 45 WNW TRI 20 ENE
LEX 15 NE MVN 25 NNW CNU 35 SSE GAG 40 NW MAF 65 S MRF ...CONT... 25
WNW LAX 20 S NID 50 NNW DRA 40 SW ELY 40 W DPG 30 W MLD 40 ENE SUN
70 S S80 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 45 W RRT 45 N BJI 20 E HIB 50 E DLH 50
NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
REGION OF HEIGHT FALLS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE N-CNTRL
STATES INTO CNTRL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO PHASING OF AMPLIFYING CNTRL
CANADIAN TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING
CNTRL U.S. TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM NWRN NEB/SWRN SD AT 25/12Z TO
LAKE MI OR LOWER MI BY 26/12Z. ATTENDANT FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY FROM
CNTRL NEB EWD ACROSS NRN IA INTO NRN IL/SRN WI WILL LIFT NWD AS A
WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY LOW...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY. 

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG/N
OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN SD/NERN NEB EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WI...AS
WELL AS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO MT/WY AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN
ROCKIES TROUGH. WHILE ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATER
THIS MORNING...DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY WITHIN SYSTEM WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT
REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON FROM SD/NEB EWD INTO
IA/MN AND WI. 

APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND
EWD ALONG WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IA...SRN/CNTRL MN INTO WI.
RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES COUPLED WITH THE
MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ALONG SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS DEEPLY-MIXED
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NEB/KS.

...NEW ENGLAND TO THE NC COAST...
MCS OR REMNANTS OF MCS CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY WILL BE IN
PROGRESS AT 25/12Z OVER SRN/SERN PA POSSIBLY INTO THE DELMARVA.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEM PRIOR TO
WEAKENING OR MOVING OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING EWD/SEWD
THROUGH REGION. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND...BETTER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO
ERN NC. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND/OR MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.