[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250058
SWODY1
SPC AC 250057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW
CLE 45 NNE FWA 35 S CGX 15 WNW HSI LBF 15 NW BFF 20 NNE DGW 15 ESE
GCC 30 SE 4BQ 55 ESE MLS 45 ESE GDV 10 NW DIK BIS 45 NW ABR 30 ENE
ABR 45 WNW RWF 35 SSE EAU 15 SSE GRB 25 ESE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 25 W PWM
20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE
CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB
40 WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE
TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20
SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N MCB 30 ENE LUL
10 WNW MGM 20 NNE MCN AVL 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF STL 40 NW UNO
35 NNE HOT 15 NW MLU 20 N MCB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CNK 30 NE RSL
25 NNE DDC 45 ENE DHT 25 NW AMA 35 SSE AMA 35 W CSM 15 NNW END 20 SE
EMP 25 SE OJC 50 ENE MKC 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 10 NE CNK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER MI...

...NERN NEB/SERN SD/SRN MN/IA EWD INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS EVENING ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM SE OF SUX TO N OF
ALO. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S HAVE
RESULTED IN A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
2500-3500 J/KG. WHILE 00Z OMA/DVN SOUNDINGS AND LOCAL VWPS/PROFILERS
INDICATE RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-25 KTS...LOW-LEVEL VEERING
INVOF OF FRONTAL ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXTENDING EWD ALONG/S OF
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SRN WI/NRN IL.

INTENSIFYING SWLY LLJ LATER TONIGHT FROM WRN OK/KS INTO ERN NEB WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT WWD DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS INTO ERN NEB
WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SD....
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING
OVER NWRN SD AND NERN WY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. IT
APPEARS THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NW WILL REMAIN W OF REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE REGENERATION ALONG PRE-EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED STORM
DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENENCE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OWING TO
MERGING/ORGANIZING COLD POOLS.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1851.

...LOWER MI...
00Z DTX SOUNDING SHOWED A MODERATELY SHEARED AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG/ ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE W OF N-S WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JUST E OF DTX SWD INTO CNTRL OH...AND S OF WEAK COLD
FRONT STRETCHED FROM N OF MBS WSWWD INTO NERN IA. PRIMARY FACTOR
LIMITING STORM DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR APPEARS TO BE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SWD ACROSS REGION OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...SLIGHT RISK IS CONDITIONAL ON INITIATION OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

...ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA...
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS OVERNIGHT APPEARS TO BE E OF
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG WLY LLJ AXIS
COUPLED WITH A WEAKER CAP IS RESULTING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT N OF
LAKE ERIE AND NEAR PSB. WHILE THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...POOR LAPSE
RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY OBSERVED ON 00Z BUF/PIT
SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..MEAD.. 07/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.