[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 242005
SWODY1
SPC AC 242004

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E
FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W
GDV 40 SSW P24 50 ESE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT
50 SE TVL 35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N
JAC 20 SSW WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S
...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40 WNW IWD 10 S
CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 35 NE
SBY 45 ENE DAN 30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL
10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE
MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN
20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW
CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...LOWER MI TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT CONTINUED TO
MOVE EWD...AND NOW EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SEWD
TO CENTRAL OH/WV.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING TO THE WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S BENEATH A PLUME
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A VERY UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR /MLCAPE UP TO 3500 J/KG.  HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND BILLOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR PER VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THIS AIR MASS REMAINED CAPPED.


SOME COOLING AT MID LEVELS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN APPARENT WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER ERN IA/SWRN WI MAY
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM
FRONT OVER LOWER MI.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF STORM
INITIATION...SEVERE PROBABILITIES/CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK WILL REMAIN
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WAA FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TRACK SEWD OVER THE
UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. GIVEN ELEVATED
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

...PARTS OF NEB/SERN SD EWD TO SWRN GREAT LAKES AREA...
MCV/WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS ERN NEB/SRN MN/IA
TO WI THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATED A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM SRN WI WSWWD ACROSS NRN
IA TO NERN-CENTRAL NEB TO NWRN KS.  A SECOND BOUNDARY...MOST LIKELY
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...EXTENDED FROM SRN MN TO CENTRAL
WI.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
SUGGESTS STORM INITIATION WILL BE SLOW INTO THE EVENING.  ANY STORMS
THAT CAN DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA AS LOW
LEVEL WAA INCREASES ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TO SWRN ND INTO SERN MT...AND
IN THE VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NWRN SD.
 STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
SUPPORTING THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADA.  INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A FURTHER INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

..PETERS.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.