[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241617
SWODY1
SPC AC 241616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
BUF 15 S BFD 45 W MRB 35 WNW SHD 25 NE BKW 20 SW CRW 40 W UNI 30 E
FWA 20 NNW MLI 10 SW IML 50 N CYS 35 WSW DGW 55 S SHR 55 SW MLS 25 W
GDV 30 NNW DIK 55 SE MBG 35 SSE EAU 15 WNW MTW 30 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE SBY 45 ENE DAN
30 N GSO 45 NE CAE 40 ESE CAE 40 ENE CHS ...CONT... 45 W 3B1 25 W
PWM 20 E ISP ...CONT... 70 NNW DVL 25 NNW GFK 30 SE TVF 30 SW HIB 40
WNW IWD 10 S CMX 20 N ANJ ...CONT... 10 ENE SBA 20 SSW FAT 50 SE TVL
35 SW EKO 35 NNE EKO 35 SSW PIH 50 E PIH 25 SW JAC 25 N JAC 20 SSW
WEY 60 WNW IDA 30 NW SUN 60 NNW BOI 45 NE BKE 65 ENE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE JAN 30 ENE LUL
10 WNW MGM 30 WSW ANB 25 NNE CSV 25 SW JKL 30 E LEX 30 NW SDF 20 SSE
MVN 40 SSW JBR 55 E PBF GLH 15 NNE JAN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CNK 30 WNW SLN
20 E DDC 60 SSW LBL 15 W AMA 20 NE PVW 25 SW CSM 15 SSE END 20 NNW
CNU 55 SSE OJC 50 N SZL 35 ENE STJ 20 SW FNB 20 ENE CNK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO
THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES....

...LOWER MI/OH/WRN PA TO NEB/SD...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW ARE
MOVING EWD OVER ONTARIO.  S OF THE LOW...A WARM FRONT IS SHIFTING
EWD ACROSS LOWER MI...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
NW WI AND FROM SRN MN INTO NRN IA.  THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS
SWWD AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO A LOW IN NW KS. A VERY
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS IS SPREADING EWD WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM WI/IL
TO LOWER MI/INDIANA...THOUGH A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
COINCIDES WITH THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR.  THIS CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ONCE WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER
90S/100S.  THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE N-S ZONE OF WAA AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY E OF THE STRONGER CAP...FROM ERN LOWER MI INTO OH...WITH
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD INTO WRN NY/WRN PA AND WV BY LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS...THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS MAY
OCCUR WITH CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT. 

FARTHER W...ELEVATED CONVECTION IS SLOWLY INCREASING OVER NRN NEB/SE
SD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN A MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NEWD FROM THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER THE ROCKIES.  BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW THE LOW
LEVELS TO WARM ON THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...AND CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LATER
TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO MAXIMIZED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED.  STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW A WEAK LOW INVOF EXTREME NE WY...AND THIS LOW
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HELP FOCUS LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE INFLUX INTO THE NE WY AREA.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED E OF THE MOUNTAINS...NEAR THE SRN FRINGE OF
THE STRONGER MID LEVEL WLY FLOW.  THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH TONIGHT ACROSS NW SD/SW ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WAA.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.