[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 241253
SWODY1
SPC AC 241252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
BUF 25 SSE CXY 10 S BWI 30 SSW SHD 25 S CRW 50 E LUK 25 SW SBN 25 S
DBQ HSI 25 W IML 35 N CYS 10 SE CPR 40 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 60
SW MBG 30 W RWF 20 ESE OSH 30 ENE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT
35 ESE BAM 35 SSE BYI 50 ENE SUN 30 SSE LWS 50 NE 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W P35 35 ENE HLC
50 E DHT 60 W CSM 30 NW BVO 50 SW SZL 45 N SZL 35 W P35.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 3B1 20 NNE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE PBF TUP 25 SSW
HSV 30 SE CHA 50 WNW TRI 10 NNW SDF 15 WSW BLV 10 WSW POF 55 ENE
PBF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/ERN GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/ERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN MODERATE NNWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG EDGE OF
RIDGING EXTENDING OUT OF THE MID SOUTH.  FAST MOVING IMPULSES
/APPARENT ON WV IMAGERY NOW OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/
WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT QUICKLY SEWD AND SHOULD FOCUS ONE OR MORE MCSS
INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS/NRN CHESAPEAKE REGION LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED BY ONGOING MCSS NOW OVERSPREADING LOWER
MI...WELL AHEAD OF PRIMARY SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR WSWWD INTO CENTRAL MN/SERN SD.  THESE SYSTEMS REMAIN
WELL-ORGANIZED...AND MAY MERGE INTO ONE LARGER MCS/MCC OVER LOWER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING.  DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS HAS YET TO DESTABILIZE EAST
OF OH...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF WRN NY/PA. 
HOWEVER...INCREASING WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN EWD INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. 
IN ADDITION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES HEATING WILL BE STRONG INTO SWRN
MI/IND/WRN OH THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING WELL DEFINED INSTABILITY
GRADIENT MAY DEVELOP NNW-SSE FROM LOWER MI ACROSS OH BY THE LATE
MORNING.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND WLY LLJ NOSES EWD...WRN EDGE OF
ONGOING MCS SHOULD INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE AND MAY RACE SSEWD AS A BOW
ECHO SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...ACTIVITY
WOULD LIKELY MOVE/PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN PA/FAR WRN
NY/WV/NRN MD AND NRN/WRN VA WITH A THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING.

DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING MCS...AND DEGREE OF RECOVERY IN
ITS WAKE...CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT AS IT SETTLES SSEWD INTO NRN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/LOWER MI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS
UNDER 30-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD AIR MASS DESTABILIZE AND
CAP WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS STRONG HEATING OVERCOMES
CAP AND SUPPORTS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.  SHEAR IS RATHER
MARGINAL OVER MUCH OF NEB/SERN SD INTO IA...THOUGH SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GIVEN DEGREE OF EXPECTED
INSTABILITY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS AND
MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT ENEWD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT
ALONG NOSE OF SSWLY LLJ AFTER DARK.

...CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE INVOF STALLED SURFACE
FRONT EXPECTED TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID
AFTERNOON INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.  MODELS
CONSISTENT WITH THIS SIGNAL AS AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND WEAKLY CAPPED PRIOR TO 21Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS/LINES /35-45 KT FROM SFC-6 KM/ AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.