[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240522
SWODY1
SPC AC 240521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
CYS 10 SSE CPR 50 SE BIL 60 W MLS 35 NE MLS 65 NE 4BQ 55 NNE PHP 40
NW HON 35 NE BKX 25 NE MKT 30 WSW RST 50 ESE FOD HSI IML 40 N CYS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
ART 25 S ABE 20 N NHK 40 W RIC 20 NNE SSU 30 SSE UNI 30 E DAY 40 SSE
CGX 25 SW MKE 55 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E SBA 40 SSW FAT
35 ESE BAM 25 WNW TWF 25 NW LND 55 ENE JAC 50 N BOI 30 SSE LWS 50 NE
63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 3B1 15 ENE
PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE ECG 40 WSW BLF
15 ESE LEX 30 E MVN 10 SSW JEF 15 N HUT 25 SE EHA AMA 40 S CDS 40 S
ADM 30 NNE PRX 55 ENE PBF 20 S HSV 25 SSW AHN 30 ENE SAV.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN TIER OF STATES
THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH CENTER OF MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE TN
VALLEY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL B.C. IS FORECAST TO
PHASE WITH LOWER AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE NEAR 42N/132W...RESULTING IN
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IN THE
NE...HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY REBOUND IN WAKE OF TROUGH MOVING
OFFSHORE.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY W OF MSP IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS NRN WI...AND EVENTUALLY MORE
ESEWD ACROSS NRN LOWER MI AND INTO LAKES ERIE/ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE N-S
ORIENTED WHILE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WHILE TRAILING COLD
FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE W...SECONDARY SURFACE
LOW DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD
OVER NERN WY/SERN MT...PRIOR TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPING INTO SWRN
SD/NWRN NEB BY 25/12Z.

...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO PORTIONS OF MD/VA...
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GREAT
LAKES ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN MCS WHICH SHOULD BE LOCATED
OVER ERN WI EWD INTO THE UP AND LOWER MI BY 24/12Z. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED INITIALLY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME LATER THIS MORNING AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES
FROM W-E ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WITH PASSAGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. INFLUX OF MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
/I.E. MLCAPES OF 2500-4500 J/KG/ AIR FROM THE WSW WHEN COUPLED WITH
35-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF OH
AND WRN NY/PA.

GIVEN COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO WHICH WOULD MOVE
SEWD...REACHING PORTIONS OF MD/VA TONIGHT. INITIALLY...MOST INTENSE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF EVENT UNFOLDS AS EXPECTED...MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WOULD SHIFT TO PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH NWWD ADVECTION OF
RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES
OF 1500-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NEB PNHDL/ERN WY
INTO SERN MT. CONVERGENCE INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE COUPLED
WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /35-45 KTS IN LOWEST 0-6 KM AGL/
WILL EXIST ACROSS NERN WY/SERN MT...SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER S OVER SERN WY INTO WRN
NEB...SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...HOWEVER MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS STORM GROWTH WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/HIGH
WINDS.

...CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB EWD INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF MCS
OVER NWRN NEB/SWRN SD. SHOULD SYSTEM REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
24/12Z...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY WITH A
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN SD/NERN NEB/SWRN MN/NWRN IA. EVEN IF SYSTEM DECAYS
PRIOR TO ONSET OF FORECAST PERIOD...REMNANT MCV INTERACTING WITH
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ACROSS SAME GENERAL AREA.

TONIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING SWLY LLJ.
MUCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEARS OF 30-40 KTS
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY
LARGE HAIL.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 07/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.