[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232023
SWODY1
SPC AC 232021

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25
SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 45 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 WNW FWA 30 SSE MMO 25
NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL
40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE
IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN 20 E BIL 20 S MLS 25 N GDV 70
NNW ISN ...CONT... 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY 35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE
LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW NHK 20 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI
20 SSW ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 15 WSW OKC
25 SW BVO 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE
LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO
NRN/CENTRAL WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...

...NRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
ONE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND MCS TO DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS ARE
EXPECTED REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PROGGED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN
CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THIS
LOW SSEWD THROUGH WRN ND TO A SECOND LOW OVER WRN SD...WHILE A LEE
TROUGH EXTENDED SWD FROM SD INTO ERN CO/NERN NM.  STRONGEST AXIS OF
INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 3500-5000 J/KG/ WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF A
WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SD SURFACE LOW SEWD ACROSS IA TO
THE MID MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  A SECOND WARM FRONT
EXTENDED FROM THE CANADA LOW SEWD ACROSS NRN MN TO NRN WI...WITH A
COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDING E-W ACROSS MN INTO SD/ND LEFT
OVER FROM CURRENT MCS/BOW ECHO MOVING ESEWD ACROSS WI.

WELL DEFINED BOW ECHO...NOW LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL WI...SHOULD
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS ERN WI NEAR LAKE MI.  NEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOW...WITH A SEWD TURN ALONG
THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO PARTS OF NRN
IL.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS MN...PERSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE
WAKE OF THE ONGOING MCS IS RESULTING IN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY SUPPORTING MOISTURE ADVECTION NWWD TOWARD THE
NRN PLAINS.  DESPITE THIS DESTABILIZATION PROCESS...COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM CENTRAL MN WWD TO NERN
SD/PARTS OF ND BENEATH STRONG WARMING IN MID LEVELS IS EFFECTIVELY
CAPPING THIS AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA PER 18Z ABR/20Z MPX SOUNDINGS.

LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SRN CANADA AND SWLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS...EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...ARE
CURRENTLY SUPPORTING ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM NERN ND INTO SRN
MANITOBA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NON-SEVERE.

STRONG CAP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING...THEN
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL ACROSS SERN ND/NERN SD AND CENTRAL MN.  GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS ND/NERN SD INTO CENTRAL MN
THIS EVENING AS SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IMPINGING ON A WARM
FRONT/CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS AREA...AND AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH.  18Z NAM SHOWS THIS
SCENARIO WITH A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING EWD ACROSS MN INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.  THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FORECAST AS THE SWLY LLJ
STRENGTHENS TO 50+ KT THIS EVENING.  THUS...WILL KEEP THE MODERATE
RISK ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

..PETERS.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.