[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231634
SWODY1
SPC AC 231632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
IWD 30 NNW GRB 15 NW OSH 20 S VOK 15 WSW MSP 40 ENE ATY 40 SE FAR 25
SW BJI 10 S HIB 30 SE IWD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
CMX 40 ESE MQT 35 WSW APN 30 S OSC 30 N DTW 35 SSW JXN 25 SW BEH 25
NNE DBQ 30 S MKT 25 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 ESE Y22 45 W BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW LAX 30 ESE BFL
40 E FAT 65 NE MER 30 SSE NFL 50 NE EKO 35 ESE BYI 15 S IDA 20 NE
IDA 10 ENE MQM 35 ENE DLN 20 SE BZN BIL 65 WNW MLS 40 S GGW 50 N
GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE DTW 40 SSE FDY
35 ENE LUK 35 SE LEX 45 SE LOZ 25 NE TRI 10 E PSK 40 ENE SSU 20 WNW
NHK 20 ENE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BHB 15 N LCI
20 SSW ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW ABI 10 SE OKC
45 SSW TUL 55 SSW SZL 25 SE DSM 45 E SUX 40 E BUB 25 ENE IML 50 NE
LAA 40 N CAO 45 WSW TCC 55 E 4CR ROW 10 NNE HOB 50 NNW ABI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MN AND WI THROUGH
TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ND TO LOWER MI THROUGH
TONIGHT....

...WI/MN TO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BOW ECHO WITH A HISTORY OF DAMAGING WINDS IS MOVING INTO W CENTRAL
WI.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT
WILL SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS
WRN AND CENTRAL WI...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 
PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN THE
MCS...THUS LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

OTHERWISE...A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SEWD INTO NW ND...AND
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD TO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL SD
AT THE INTERSECTION OF A REMNANT LEE TROUGH AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TRAILING FROM THE MN/WI MCS.  THIS LOW SHOULD MOVE EWD/ENEWD INTO MN
TONIGHT AS THE OUTFLOW REINFORCED FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NWD ACROSS MN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT.  STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG/ IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
RETREATING BOUNDARY BY LATE TODAY...WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO
BE MAXIMIZED.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY
LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT IN NE SD/WRN MN AS DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCALIZED ASCENT ERODE THE STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER.  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHILE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE INTO
ANOTHER MCS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS MN/WI BY TONIGHT.

FARTHER N...EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL ND AND OUTFLOW FROM
THE MN MCS WILL TEND TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY.  STILL...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
ND...SPREADING EWD INTO ERN ND THIS EVENING AND NW MN TONIGHT. SOME
OF THE INITIAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY EVOLVE FROM THE
ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT IS NOW FORMING OVER CENTRAL ND.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.