[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231252
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE
RHI GRB 25 NW MKE 10 ESE LNR 10 ESE MKT 55 SW AXN 40 SE FAR 25 SSW
BJI 15 SW HIB 20 NE RHI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
DTW 30 SW SBN 25 NNE MLI 30 S MKT 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40 N MBG 55 NE
BIS 80 NE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55
SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 30 SE BTM 15 SW 3HT
70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW ISN ...CONT... CLE 25 N CMH
20 NNE LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30
SSW ACY ...CONT... 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI 15 NW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HOB 25 WSW ABI
50 ESE SPS 30 NW FSM 55 SSW SZL 15 WSW P35 25 S OLU 10 S BBW 50 E
LIC 40 E TCC 35 SE HOB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
COMPLEX FORECAST AS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES OVERRIDE A
VERY WARM AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NNEWD INTO
THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
AND TIGHTEN HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE N-CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  LEADING IMPULSE NOW SPREADING TOWARDS THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. IN
ADDITION...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
ERN DAKOTAS LATE TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.  A LOW CENTER WILL DEVELOP NEAR TRIPLE POINT
BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER
DEFINED FROM SERN ND ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN/SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. 


ONGOING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS/MCSS NOW DEVELOPING OVER NERN SD AND
NEAR THE IA/WI/MN BORDER REGION SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER CORES...WITH
ADDITIONAL THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE WITH BOWING SEGMENT MOVING ACROSS
NERN SD/W-CENTRAL MN AT 13Z.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE MID MORNING BY AREAS/OFFICES
DOWNSTREAM...GIVEN AMOUNT OF STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED
TRACK NEAR THE SURFACE WARM FRONT.  CAPPING WILL WEAKEN WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING...AND COMPLEX COULD SURGE ESEWD WITH AN INCREASED
WIND THREAT /POSSIBLY A LARGE BOW ECHO/ IF IT CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO
THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALONG FAVORABLE NERN EDGE OF
STRONGER CAPPING/H7 THERMAL RIDGE AND COULD MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ALONG NOSE OF VEERING SWLY LLJ.

FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT ALONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING OVER FAR ERN ND/NERN SD/WRN MN...WHERE COMBINATION OF
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HEATING SHOULD BREAK CAP ALONG WRN EDGE OF
H7 THERMAL RIDGE.  INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
RAPIDLY GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DEGREE OF SHEAR...WITH QUICK
EVOLUTION INTO SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
UPWARDS INTO A MCS THROUGH THE EVENING AND SPREAD THREATS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EWD INTO THE NRN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT.  SHOULD THIS MCS REMAIN ROOTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AFTER DARK...ANOTHER BOW ECHO COULD EVOLVE FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.