[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230540
SWODY1
SPC AC 230539

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE
MTC 15 NE JXN 30 WNW BEH 40 ENE DBQ 30 NNE MCW 20 E BKX 40 NW HON 40
N MBG 50 NNE BIS 70 NE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW SMX 25 E MRY 55
SE RBL 35 S SVE 25 SSE NFL 40 WNW ENV 10 N BYI 55 SSW 27U 50 NW S06
25 W FCA 10 WNW 3DU 15 SW 3HT 70 NE BIL 25 NNE MLS 15 WNW SDY 60 NNW
ISN ...CONT... 45 SSE P07 50 SE MAF 30 WNW ABI 35 ENE DAL 15 WNW FSM
50 SSW SZL 20 W P35 25 ENE GRI 25 SW BBW 50 W GLD 35 E TCC 40 ESE
ALM 45 WSW ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 25 NW CMH 20 NNE
LEX 45 WSW LOZ 50 NNE HSV 15 WSW ATL 10 NE HKY 20 SSW SHD 30 SSW
ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE PSM 15 W LCI
15 NW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN STORM TRACK TAKES A SHIFT SWD AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NRN TIER OF STATES.  DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY DURING THE
PERIOD AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST CREATING THE ZONAL FLOW.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING ASPECTS IN THE STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.  THE NAM SEEMS TO
OVERFORECAST THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO MN/WI WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 KT.  THIS IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND HAS CREATED
WIND PROFILES AND HODOGRAPHS MORE LIKE APRIL AND MAY IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THUS...HAVE OPTED FOR THE NAMKF
AND GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH FORECAST 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS
REGION.

...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS
BORDER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD EWD THRU N CENTRAL MN SWWD INTO
SERN SD BY 24/12Z.  ANALYSIS OF H7 TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD WITH 16C TEMPERATURES NOSING INTO SWRN
MN THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL SD
EWD/NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 24/00Z ENHANCING PRESSURE FALLS/UVVS
ACROSS CENTRAL MN ALONG SRN EDGES MID LEVEL 60-70 KT FLOW.  IN
ADDITION...STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL PUSH EWD BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN CLUSTERS...THEN A LINE AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO
WARM...VERY MOIST AND QUITE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAMKF INDICATE MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000
J/KG.  MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WINDS ENHANCED BY THE TRANSFER OF DOWNWARD MOMENTUM ON SRN FRINGES
OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION.  WITH LOW
LEVEL JET COUPLING WITH SRN FRINGES OF MID LEVEL FLOW...HAVE
INCLUDED A LOW PROBABILITY OF TORNADOES FROM CENTRAL MN INTO NWRN WI
WHERE SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF MAIN LINE ALONG WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU NRN WI DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...ERN CAROLINAS SWWD INTO PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

PULSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN WEAK ELY
FLOW AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.  DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG SERIES
OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES.  MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
3000-4000 J/KG WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING MID LEVEL RH VALUES
OF 50-60 PERCENT.  THUS...ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
STRONGER CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...SRN PARTS OF TX...

MODELS SHOW WEAK ELY WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN TX LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.  VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S.  MUCAPES
ARE FORECAST TO REACH TO AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITH
THE WAVE ENHANCING UVVS FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO ACCOMPANY ACTIVITY.

...SRN AND CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

MONSOONAL FLOW CONTINUES WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION.  WIDELY SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS HEATING
STEEPENS LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THUS...SOME ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM PARTS OF AZ/NM NWD INTO UT AND NV.

..MCCARTHY/TAYLOR.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.