[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230104
SWODY1
SPC AC 230103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
DVL 45 SSW GFK 45 ENE ABR 35 WNW HON 15 WNW PHP 30 SSE 81V 30 E WRL
50 E WEY 10 SSW DLN 40 S 3DU 60 SE FCA 20 N CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL
30 WNW EDW 40 E FAT 45 E TVL 40 WNW LOL 70 S BNO 55 NNW BNO 10 NNW
YKM 35 NW EAT 65 NW 4OM ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 40 ENE BJI 40 NE BRD
45 NE MSP 30 NE RST 40 NE ALO 25 SE CID 35 NW STL 30 WNW MDH 20 SW
OWB 35 ENE BWG 20 SW JKL 20 WNW PKB 10 WNW ROC ...CONT... 20 NW DRT
50 E SJT 45 N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 35 SSE
OJC 15 ENE TOP 15 SSE BIE 35 N BUB VTN 55 E CDR 25 SSE BFF 35 ENE
FCL 15 W DEN 35 WNW COS 30 WNW PUB 15 NNE TAD 10 NE LVS 25 ESE ABQ
45 NW TCS 55 ESE DUG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT FROM
CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NWRN U.S. WITH STRONG RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THRU THE NERN U.S.  RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING NWD
THRU THE NRN PLAINS AND WILL BE SHIFTING EWD TONIGHT ALLOWING WLY
FLOW OVER MT INTO THE NRN PLAINS.  CURRENTLY...TWO SEPARATE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE NWRN U.S. TROUGH.
 ONE IS MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL MT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...WHILE THE SECOND IS OVER S CENTRAL ALBERTA.  THE TWO ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PHASE TONIGHT RESULTING IN AN MCS OVER ERN MT INTO
ND.

...CENTRAL MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...

QUASISTATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN THRU NERN MT
AND SERN ND AND CENTRAL MN.  LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WARM
/GREATER THAN 14C/ TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB INTO SERN MT.  THIS MAY
WEAKEN A BIT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVEL EWD ACROSS MT.  LATEST RUC
MODEL DEVELOPS UVVS OVER NERN MT INTO SWRN ND LATER TONIGHT WHERE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-3000 J/KG RUNNING ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER.  LOW LEVEL JET
40-45 KT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ENHANCING UVVS FOR
MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...NERN U.S...

COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CENTRAL ME SWWD THRU CENTRAL MA INTO SWRN
PA THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/SEWD NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THRU PARTS
OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE WITH LOSS OF ADDITIONAL
HEATING NEXT FEW HOURS.  REMAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE AS WELL...BUT DECREASING THERMODYNAMICS
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.