[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 222013
SWODY1
SPC AC 222011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N
GFK 45 NE JMS 40 SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE
COD 50 SSE LVM 15 N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE
63S 30 NW CTB 45 NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM 15 NNW PWM 25 SW BOS 20 W TTN 25 SSE BWI 45 SSW MRB 20 SSW BFD
30 NE ROC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45
N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 20 SSW UMN 30 N UMN 40 ENE CNU EMP 20 SE
CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 25 SSE BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW
COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP
...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE
MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT...
35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10
SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY
45 WNW CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES EWD TO
ND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN STATES...

...MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY EVENING... WITH
MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2000 J/KG FROM VA TO WRN NEW
ENGLAND.  STRONG DEEP LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NOW
OVER QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NRN NY INTO ME...WITH A
SECOND AREA OF ENHANCED SHEAR OVER SRN PA TO VA WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER THIS REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLANTIC TO NE STATES IN ADVANCE OF
A SURFACE TROUGH SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT...
UPPER TROUGH...NOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS WA...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SWRN CANADIAN PROVINCES AND MT.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN
ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD FROM SRN
ID WITH A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ID INTO MT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  RUC
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LOW LEVELS BEING RELATIVELY DRY...
SUGGESTING THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE INITIAL STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...GIVEN THE DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN TONIGHT...AS HEIGHTS FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH...WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ND OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL LATER TONIGHT.

...MID TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
AND/OR MCV/S TRACKING SEWD OVER THE MID-LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WITH
OVERALL LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK.  AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM ERN SD SEWD ACROSS
ERN NEB TO NWRN AND SERN MO.  AIR MASS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/KG/ THROUGH
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT...
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAINLY OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY FROM ERN SD TO NERN KS/NWRN MO WILL RESULT IN THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS.

...PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX...
REGIONAL RADARS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A WSWWD MOVING CLUSTER OF
STORMS...NOW LOCATED OVER EAST TX...WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED COLD
POOL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  ELY MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE SERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
COLD POOL WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED WSWWD MOTION...WITH THESE STORMS
MOVING INTO PARTS OF NRN TO SE TX.  DESPITE WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. 

...PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM SRN NV NWD ACROSS ERN
NV/WRN UT TO ERN ID COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN NV WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA.  GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL... THOUGH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.

..PETERS.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.