[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221252
SWODY1
SPC AC 221250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW
JHW 25 NW BUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S AST 35 NE AST 10
N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40
WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N
RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 15 SW HUF 35 SE IND 20 NW DAY 45 W CLE
...CONT... 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45 N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 30 ESE MHK 25
SSW BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60 ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW
TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 15 WSW FAR
55 ENE ABR 50 NW PIR 20 ESE RAP 60 SSE 81V 55 N DGW SHR 50 NE COD 50
SSE LVM 30 NW WEY 55 NE SUN 35 NW SUN 35 ESE BKE 40 N ALW 35 NE GEG
55 NNW 3TH 30 NW GTF 25 ENE LWT 55 S GGW 65 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN
PLAINS...

...NORTHEAST...
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS MUCH OF
UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS ONTARIO. 
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY
SUGGESTING ABUNDANT AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...GIVEN RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM H85 TO JUST UNDER H5
AT PIT AND BUF THIS MORNING.  AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES...EXPECT SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
OTHER LOCAL CONVERGENCE MAXIMA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  GIVEN EXPECTED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLS UNDER INCREASING WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
MORNING WV IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
APPROACHING THE REGION THIS MORNING...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS NOW
MOVING ACROSS SWRN ORE.  OTHER WEAKER DISTURBANCES WHERE LIFTING
MORE NWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  LATEST GFS AND RUC APPEAR TO
HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS WELL AND BRING GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVES NEWD INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY...WITH TRAILING STRONG SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  EACH OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD FOCUS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS HEATING
SUPPORTS LARGE LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE.

AS STRONGEST SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE PAC NW...MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT AND OVERSPREAD NERN ORE/NRN ID INTO CENTRAL
MT BY 21Z.  ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOTH UVV AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD ENHANCE STORM INTENSITIES/COVERAGE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS SHIFTING ENEWD THROUGH
THE EVENING.

CAPPING WILL LIKELY REMAIN PRONOUNCED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS NRN WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND CONVERGENCE
INVOF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH /WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ MAY ALLOW SURFACE BASED STORMS TO
FORM/PERSIST AS THEY OVERSPREAD LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET OVER ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS AS STRONG SSELY
LLJ BECOMES ESTABLISHED...WITH THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING ENEWD ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ OVERNIGHT.

...MID SOUTH REGION...
OVERNIGHT MCS MOVING ACROSS WRN KY/MIDDLE TN HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE...ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 15-20 KT WHICH WILL BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINES.  HOWEVER...
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF MECHANISM TO FOCUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...MID MO RIVER VALLEY...
09Z RUC SUGGESTS CAPPING WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY OVER SERN SD/FAR
NERN NEB/NWRN IA/SWRN MN LATER TODAY NEAR SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
WEAK SURFACE WAVE.  HOWEVER...RUC APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS
BOUNDARY LAYER AND 12Z OAX SOUNDING EXHIBITS STRONGER CAPPING THAN
PROGGED BY THE 09Z RUC.  WITH STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINING
WELL NW OF THIS REGION AND STRENGTH OF CAP...EXPECT SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AS
CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO FORM
WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.