[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220548
SWODY1
SPC AC 220547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM AUG 20 ENE EEN 25 ENE MSV 35 ESE IPT 15 NE PSB 25 ENE FKL 20 WNW
JHW 25 NW BUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW
LUK 55 ESE LUK 25 SE HTS 25 ESE 5I3 15 ESE TRI 15 NW HSS 15 WSW CSV
50 SW BNA 40 S PAH 15 N PAH 20 W EVV 50 WSW LUK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
RRT 35 SW BRD 25 NNW MKT 15 WNW MCW 40 ESE FOD 40 E OMA 25 SSW SUX
30 WSW YKN 40 WSW 9V9 40 SSE PHP 60 NNE DGW 35 WSW GCC 35 WNW SHR 15
NW BIL 25 NE LWT 55 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45
N FTW MLC 20 ENE TUL 20 SW TOP 30 SSE BIE 10 NNE GRI 30 WNW BBW 60
ENE SNY 30 S AKO 30 SW LHX 50 WSW TCC 40 W ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT...
20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSE
MFR 30 N 4BK ...CONT... 35 N ONP 45 NNW PDX 10 N SEA 20 NE BLI
...CONT... 35 ESE RRT 35 N RST 25 ESE MLI 25 SSW BMI 25 NW HUF IND
25 ESE MIE 30 W FDY 35 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OHIO/TN VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THRU THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS INTO
THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY.  MAIN FEATURES TO CONCENTRATE ON ARE THE
PAIR OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRAVEL FROM WRN MT AND
WRN OREGON NEWD AND EWD THRU THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN MCS EVENT ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS TONIGHT.  IN ADDITION...MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES/SERN
ONTARIO THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

OVERNIGHT MCS OCCURRING OVER INDIANA INTO E CENTRAL/SERN IL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG/JUST S OF THE OHIO RIVER BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD.  SQUALL LINE DRIVEN BY SUBSIDENT COLD POOL IS EXPECTED
TO HAVE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE
OUTLOOK PERIOD INTO PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY...POSSIBLY MAKING IT
INTO NRN MIDDLE AND NERN TN.  MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF
THE MCS SUPPORTING CONTINUAL ACCESS TO VERY WARM MOIST AIR MASS WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. LATER THIS MORNING...BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWD AND SWWD
INTO PARTS OF AR...MS AND AL WHERE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS WILL
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

...NERN U.S...

MODELS INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE THRU THE NERN U.S. THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. EXIT
REGION OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET WILL EXTEND OVER THE NERN GREAT
LAKES LATER THIS MORNING PLACING DIVERGENT FLOW OVER THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON ENHANCING UVVS.  MODELS SHOW THAT SURFACE DEW
POINTS COULD BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S /WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE
NAM/ BUT WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS MUCAPES PROJECTED TO BE 1500-2000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.  LINE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NERN U.S. WITH
THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN PLAINS...

MODELS INDICATE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE FROM THE
NWRN U.S. NEWD AND EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON THEN
THRU THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL
JET OF 40-50 KT FROM WRN KS NWD INTO CENTRAL SD AND S CENTRAL ND
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SECONDARY BRANCH EXTENDING TOWARDS NWRN SD
AND SERN MT.  MEANWHILE AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRANSVERSE ACROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS LARGE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENHANCE UVVS
ALONG WARM FRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY MOVING NWD THRU THE DAKOTAS. 
THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE MUCAPE WILL BE AROUND 4000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 50-60 KT ACROSS THE
AREA.  CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A LARGE MCS IN FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 7.5 TO 8C/KM ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.  MODELS
SHOW THAT HELICITY VALUES IN THE LOWEST 1KM WILL BE 250...AND IN THE
LOWEST 3KM OVER 400 INDICATING ROTATING SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...THESE
STORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AFTER 23/06Z AND HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
PROBABILITIES TO A POINT WHERE ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH
THESE STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

...ARN AREAS OF AZ...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE AIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF EMILY
WHICH HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN AREAS OF MEXICO.  ELY
FLOW OF 20-30 KT WILL AGAIN BE OVER SRN AZ WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. 
THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.