[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 221630
SWODY1
SPC AC 221628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT FRI JUL 22 2005

VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
EPM 15 NNW PWM 20 E ORH 10 WNW ILG 25 WNW HGR 20 SSW BFD 15 WNW ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW DRT 50 E SJT 45
N FTW 10 NNW MLC 35 WSW FYV 15 N HRO 30 E SGF 50 N SGF 25 NE EMP 20
SE CNK 35 N BUB 9V9 40 SSW PIR 15 NNW BFF 30 NE DEN 25 SW DEN 35 WNW
COS 30 WNW PUB 25 SSE PUB 40 SW CAO 35 SW TCC 55 WNW CNM 20 W ELP
...CONT... 20 W CZZ 25 SSE RAL 35 W PMD 40 E FAT 40 WNW TVL 50 SE
MHS 10 NNE MFR 10 SSW EUG 40 SE OLM 25 NNE SEA 15 NNE BLI ...CONT...
35 ESE RRT 45 NW HIB 40 ENE STC 45 NW EAU 10 ESE AUW 15 ENE OSH 10
SSE JVL 15 S SPI 15 W SLO 25 ENE MDH 25 ESE OWB 15 W LEX 35 NE DAY
45 WNW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 N GFK 45 NE JMS 40
SSW JMS 25 ESE MBG 25 WNW RAP 20 WSW GCC SHR 50 NE COD 50 SSE LVM 15
N WEY 35 N IDA 35 NW SUN 40 E BKE 40 WNW PUW 50 NE 63S 30 NW CTB 45
NW LWT 40 S GGW 65 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO
ND OVERNIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM
CENTRAL PA NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND....

...NE STATES...
A WEAKENING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM WV TO WRN PA/NY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER AND A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING.  HOWEVER...IF CLOUD BREAKS ARE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S...THE 12Z BUF/PIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW 700 MB AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS.

FARTHER UPSTREAM...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO
AMPLIFY INVOF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ESEWD
TOWARD THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATER THIS EVENING. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. 
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

...MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO ND TONIGHT...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EJECTING NEWD OVER WRN ORE THIS MORNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO WRN MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AROUND THE NWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDING EWD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY
ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN MT...A PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES MAY SUPPORT A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE
EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EWD OVERNIGHT TOWARD ERN MT/WRN ND...WITH
SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY SURVIVING AND MOVING EWD FROM E/SE MT INTO
ND.  THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STORMS AWAY FROM HIGHER TERRAIN IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...THOUGH THE LATTER MAY BE
OVERCOME BY STRONG ASCENT.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING WAA IN ADVANCE OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...ON THE NERN FRINGE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE
PLUME FROM THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES...MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS ND.  INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SE AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL LATE TONIGHT.

...MID MO VALLEY...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S/ AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL MAINTAIN A NW-SE AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SE SD/WRN IA/ERN NEB.  THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GIVEN THE
TENDENCY FOR RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...A LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN SD AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS FORM...VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH SWD MOVING
SUPERCELLS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.