[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220107
SWODY1
SPC AC 220106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE
MOT 40 W GFK 40 SSE FAR 25 W RWF 10 WNW SPW 40 NNE OMA 20 NNW LNK 20
WNW BBW 35 ESE CDR 50 WSW RAP 40 WNW REJ 30 NW P24 60 ENE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CLE 30 NNW ZZV 55 E LUK 30 WNW LEX 35 WNW SDF 40 SSW BMG 25 WSW MTO
15 S PIA 35 E MLI 10 ESE CGX 10 SSE GRR 30 SSW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE ELO 50 NW IWD
15 NE IWD 10 SW MQT 35 NNW PLN 65 ENE APN ...CONT... 35 S HUL 20 W
BGR 20 S RUT 25 WNW MSV 15 NE ABE 25 NE NEL ...CONT... CZZ 15 ESE
RAL 15 WSW PMD VBG ...CONT... 30 SSW ONP 30 WNW DLS 30 SSE EPH 35 S
S06 45 SW 3DU 20 WSW DLN 20 ENE PIH 25 E EVW 30 SSE RKS 10 SSW RWL
55 NNE CPR 10 NNE MLS 65 N OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE LVS 25 S ROW 30
NW FST 60 NNE P07 35 ESE SJT 20 SE BWD 10 SSE DAL 20 WNW PRX 30 ENE
MKO 25 NNE CNU 30 SW MHK 45 N RSL 30 NNE GLD 30 SE LIC TAD 15 SE
LVS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY FRI MORNING ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS FROM SRN CA AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE RIDGE HAS EXTENDED
NNWWD DURING THE DAY INTO THE NRN PLATEAU REGION ENHANCING NWLY FLOW
ALOFT FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. 
MEANWHILE...ONE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED W OF THE
NWRN CA COAST SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODELS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND THE CAROLINAS.  QUITE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTEND FROM SERN
ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS LOWER MI INTO IL AND IA...AND SEVERAL ARE A
RESULT OF CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER.

...SERN LOWER MI INTO WRN/CENTRAL OH/INDIANA/E CENTRAL IL...

MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD INTO NERN
IL THIS EVENING AND WILL BE MOVING EWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.  STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALIGNED WITHIN INSTABILITY AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL OH  INTO CENTRAL IL.  MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL OH TO 3500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL IL.  LATEST RAOB FROM KILN
SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER 3KM...AS WELL AS CENTRAL IL...
WITH VALUES BETWEEN 8 AND 8.5C/KM.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING TO
WHERE ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECREASE IN
INSOLATION/DESTABILIZATION.

...NRN PLAINS...

CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE AHEAD OF MID/UPR LEVEL TROUGH
NOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM S CENTRAL CANADA INTO E CENTRAL WY.  THE
ACTIVITY IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
SWRN ND INTO NWRN IA WHICH WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS OF WEAK CONVERGENCE
THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.  AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/S
OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG.  NWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK OF 35-45 KT AND 60-70 KT...RESPECTIVELY EXTENDS FROM SRN
ALBERTA INTO NWRN MN PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT ACROSS
THE AREA.  23Z RUC MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE BRN SHEAR VALUES AROUND
100 AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ERN PARTS OF THE ND/SD BORDER. 
THUS...SUPERCELLS A REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST THRU THE NEXT 6 HOURS
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

...PARTS OF SRN AZ...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ WHERE LAPSE
RATES ARE AROUND 8.5C/KM.  A FEW STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE REMAINING DAYTIME HEATING.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.