[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210530
SWODY1
SPC AC 210528

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
FRM 50 SE RST 30 WNW RFD 45 S CGX IND 40 N BWG 30 WNW HOP 25 W PAH
45 SW BLV 45 S UIN 20 NE P35 50 ESE OMA 50 ESE SUX 25 SW SPW 25 S
FRM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE
HON 20 S MBG 35 WNW MBG 15 ENE BIS 40 S DVL 25 NNW FAR 40 NNW AXN 25
SE AXN 30 WNW RWF 25 ENE BKX 20 NNE HON.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW
TUS 25 WNW TUS 35 WSW SAD 40 S SAD 20 ESE DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S LGB BFL 25 ESE
MER 30 E SAC 45 ESE RBL 35 SSW RBL 45 NW SFO ...CONT... 45 S AST OLM
25 E SEA 25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW
TWF 35 ESE EVW 30 S RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 55 NNW REJ 65 NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW
25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25
WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N
RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX 55 W RHI 20
NNE VOK 35 WNW MKE 25 NNW AZO 70 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25
E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM IA
SEWD ACROSS IL INTO PARTS OF INDIANA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND
AND NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ACROSS SERN AZ....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CHALLENGE FOR THIS
OUTLOOK IS ESTIMATING POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED SEVERE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL OVERNIGHT MCS OVER NERN NEB INTO WRN IA...AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
ORIENTING A MORE NWLY FLOW FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.  ALSO...NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD/EWD INTO
NWRN CA AND WRN ORE TONIGHT.

...PARTS OF IA SEWD INTO IL AND INDIANA...

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 21/03Z INDICATING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND
SHIFT DEMARCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB EWD THRU CENTRAL IA SEWD
INTO E CENTRAL IL.  THIS IS ALSO THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AXIS INDICATING THAT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL TRACK VERY CLOSE TO
THIS BOUNDARY GOING INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  NAM/ETA GIVES
A VERY STRONG SIGNAL THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS
IA AND IL THRU THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED BY MID/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPR 70S GIVING MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG.

THUS...WOULD EXPECT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL IA AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD.  CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE/REDEVELOP ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WITH THE
MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...PARTS OF SERN ND/NERN SD INTO W CENTRAL MN...

MODELS HINT AT SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SWRN MANITOBA SWD ACROSS WRN SD.  WOULD EXPECT NRN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEB/IA OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS THIS
AREA UNDERNEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  MODELS SHOW SRN BRANCH OF UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK WILL EXTEND FROM SERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO E CENTRAL
ND PLACING AREA UNDERNEATH EXIT REGION.  WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS NRN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
POSSIBLY PRODUCING ELEVATED STORMS SUPPORTED BY 1500-2000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT.  MAIN THREAT FOR
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

...SERN AREA OF AZ...

MONSOONAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS PER LATEST WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REMNANTS OF HRCN EMILY DECAYING OVER THE
MEXICAN MOUNTAINS.  MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS OF
30-40 DEGREES F WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES.  THUS...WOULD EXPECT
WITH 40 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW AND INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS AS
INDICATED USING THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

...N CENTRAL AREAS OF CA INTO CENTRAL AREAS OF OREGON...

MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES NEWD OVER NWRN CA INTO WRN OREGON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  MID LEVEL JET OF 50-60 KT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE
TROUGH NEWD INTO SERN WA TONIGHT.  SOME DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE UVVS AS WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES ACROSS PUGET SOUND THIS EVENING EXTENDING SSWWD THRU SWRN ORE.
 MODELS SHOW CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONG HEATING  WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATING
THE POSSIBILITY OF MICROBURSTS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

..MCCARTHY/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.