[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 210114
SWODY1
SPC AC 210113

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
TUS 40 N PHX 65 SSE FLG 40 WSW SOW 15 ENE SAD 35 E DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
LRD 35 SSE COT 25 SW NIR 20 ESE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW
HUF 15 WNW DEC 30 WSW MMO 25 SSE CGX 15 S SBN 10 S TOL 30 SSE FDY 40
W DAY 10 WSW HUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
MCW 20 ENE DSM OMA 10 SSE BUB 35 NNE AIA PHP 35 NNE 9V9 40 NW OTG 10
WSW FRM 35 S MCW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT JCT 45 SSW PRX 10
NNW FSM 35 WSW SZL 20 N TOP 10 WNW CNK 30 W RSL 30 WSW TCC 30 NNW
CNM 60 SSW MRF ...CONT... 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15 NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX
15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 15 WNW NFL U31 20 SW ELY 45 W U24 20
WNW PUC 45 E VEL 55 WSW LAR 25 NW CYS 10 SW BFF 30 S CDR 30 S RAP 40
N PHP 55 NE PIR 35 NNW ATY 20 S AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO ...CONT... 20 NNW
ROC 30 SSW CAK 20 SW PKB 20 SSE CHO 25 E SBY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMINDER OF TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF SD AND NEB INTO WRN IA....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF ERN IL INTO IN AND WRN OH....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT OVER SERN
AZ....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT OVER
EXTREME SRN TX....

...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS
FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND SWRN MN...WWD THRU SD
THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS SERN AND N CENTRAL MT.  WNWLY FLOW EXISTS
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AROUND PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
GREAT BASIN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  MODELS INDICATE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD OUT OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING
SEWD ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  MEANWHILE...T.S. EMILY CONTINUES WWD INTO THE MEXICAN
ROCKIES.  REFER TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES FROM THE
NOAA TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

...PARTS OF SRN SD/NRN NEB INTO WRN IA...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SEWD OUT
OF SWRN SD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SMALL MCS THAT COULD TRACK
ESEWD POSSIBLY REACHING AREAS LIKE OMAHA AND WRN DES MOINES BY
21/12Z.  SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPR 70S AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY POOLED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA.  LATEST RUC MODELS INDICATE
THAT LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40 KT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE NEWD INTO SWRN IA ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE EXISTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  IN ADDITION...50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK IS
MOVING ACROSS ID/WY WHERE ITS EXIT REGION IS LOCATED OVER THE
CURRENT CONVECTION.  THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND OVER SERN SD/NERN NEB
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AIDING IN ENHANCING UVVS WITH DIVERGENT
FLOW ALOFT.  LATEST 00Z RAOB DATA SHOWS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 8.5 TO 9C/KM AND MLCAPE OF 4000 J/KM INDICATING THAT SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...PARTS OF IL/IN AND NWRN OH...

CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THIS REGION FROM EARLIER
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CURRENT ACTIVITY IS
 MOVING ALONG INSTABILITY AXIS...AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
OVER SERN LOWER MI ATTM.  WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO
LAST UNTIL BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. MLCAPES ARE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG WHERE CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED...THEN ACTIVITY WILL RUN INTO LOWER DEW
POINTS/LESSER INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

...SERN AZ...

THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THRU AREA WITH LARGE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.  ACTIVITY COULD STILL PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS UNTIL AROUND
06Z OR SO.

...EXTREME SRN TX...

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SCATTERED BANDS OF CONVECTION ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF T.S. EMILY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-35 KT EXISTS ACROSS
THIS AREA...SO THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES THRU THE
REMINDER OF TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.