[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211251
SWODY1
SPC AC 211249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
YUM 40 WNW PHX 40 SW SOW 40 ENE SAD 45 ESE DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE
DVL 10 NW BJI 30 ESE BRD 30 S EAU 25 WNW OSH 30 NNW MKG 15 S HTL 70
SE OSC 50 WNW CLE 40 WSW DAY 30 ENE BWG 40 WSW HOP 30 N POF 45 ENE
COU 40 NNE FNB 30 SSE BBW 20 WNW AIA 15 ESE 81V 55 SE GDV 65 NNW
ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S AST OLM 25 E SEA
25 N EAT 30 E EPH 25 SE ALW 35 SSE BKE 30 SSW BOI 40 SSW TWF 15 ESE
EVW 30 SSE RKS 25 SSW RWL 30 NE CPR 20 S 4BQ 55 NNE GGW ...CONT...
10 W LGB 35 WSW PMD 40 WSW BFL 30 NNE PRB 10 NE SAC 50 NW SAC 40 SE
UKI 45 NW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LVS 25 SE ROW
25 WNW MAF 40 SSE BGS 25 WNW BWD 10 E SEP 10 SSE DAL 35 NNW PRX 25
WSW FSM 30 WNW HRO 10 NW SGF 50 SSW SZL 25 ESE TOP 10 ENE MHK 25 N
RSL 50 NNW GCK 15 SSW LAA 25 ENE RTN 45 SSE LVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E CAR 25 E 3B1 25
E BML 20 SE MPV 20 WSW UCA 20 E ELM 35 NNE CXY 15 WNW ILG 15 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CMX RHI 35 NW
GRB 10 NNW MBL 35 N HTL 30 ESE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLNS SE INTO THE
MID MS/LWR OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT WRN/CNTRL U.S. RIDGE EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY N ACROSS THE NRN
RCKYS BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST LIFTS NE INTO
WRN ORE.  WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES SKIRTING THE
NRN FRINGE OF THE UPR RIDGE THAT LIKELY WILL AFFECT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD.

AT LWR LEVELS...A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SE
ACROSS MI/WI AND THE MID MS VLY...WHILE WRN PART OF SAME FEATURE
REFORMS N AS A WARM FRONT OVER NEB AND THE DAKS.  BUT SURFACE
PATTERN LIKELY WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LEFT BY
ONGOING AND FUTURE MCSS.

...IA/SRN WI ESE INTO SRN IL/IND/LWR MI...
IA/SRN MN MCS HAS A WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED MCV AND PRESSURE FALL
CENTER.  AREA VAD AND PROFILER DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-50 KT WLY
FLOW THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP /4 KM/ LAYER ON S SIDE OF MCV...
SUGGESTING THAT SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR FACTOR GOVERNING
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DOWNSTREAM INTO LWR MI AND THE OH VLY.

WITH SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT REMAINING WELL N ACROSS WI/MI THROUGH THE
DAY...AND HEATING LIKELY TO OCCUR AHEAD OF IT...NRN PART OF THE
MN/IA COMPLEX COULD AFFECT PARTS OF WI/MI WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD.  MORE ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS MAY ALSO FORM ON THE FRONT ITSELF...WHERE PROXIMITY TO MAIN
BAND OF WLYS WILL YIELD 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR.  THIS COULD COMPENSATE
FOR RATHER MODEST INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL MI AND YIELD STRONG WINDS
IN THAT AREA.

GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS
PARTS OF IL/IND AND THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 2500
J/KG.  SRN PART OF MN/IA COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THESE AREAS AT OR
FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...THEREBY ENHANCING SEVERE WIND AND POSSIBLE 
HAIL THREAT.

...FAR ERN MT ESE INTO DAKS/NEB/IA...
A SERIES DISTURBANCES ARE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SKIRTING
NRN SIDE OF UPR RIDGE. COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OVERSPREADING REGION ALONG MODERATE /40-50 KT/ WNWLY MID LEVEL JET
...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING WWD N OF WEAK WARM FRONT...
SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE PERIODIC DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION IN NRN
NEB/SRN SD...AND/OR INVOF INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE BLACK HILLS. 
AFTERNOON MLCAPE IN THIS REGION WILL EXCEED 3000 J/KG BENEATH A
STRONG CAP.  ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL STORMS...MOST LIKELY SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED...MAY FORM LATE TODAY OR EARLY TONIGHT IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...DOWNSTREAM FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WHILE THE LLJ IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE...HIGH WIND PRODUCING SQUALL LINE THAT
COULD CONTINUE SE INTO IA EARLY FRIDAY.

...SRN AZ...
LITTLE CHANGE IN MID/UPR LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER AZ TODAY
...DESPITE EXPANSION OF UPR RIDGE.  WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY END
UP BEING A BIT MORE MOIST IN PLACES GIVEN OUTFLOW FROM STORMS IN NW
MEXICO...LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC SETUP SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BEFORE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE FROM "EMILY" MORE
DRASTICALLY ALTERS CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.  25-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL
FLOW ON S SIDE OF RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FAVOR W/WSW PROPAGATION OF
DIURNAL STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E CNTRL/SE AZ. 
VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...NRN CA/INTERIOR ORE AND SRN WA...
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING N ACROSS SRN
AND CNTRL CA ATTM SHOULD ACCELERATE NNE ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS DEEP SSWLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF OFFSHORE LOW.  STRONG SURFACE HEATING/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
...COUPLED WITH ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT
...WILL CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH-BASED STORMS.  LARGE
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND 40+ KT UNIDIRECTIONAL SSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO BANDS AND MAY
PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE WINDS.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.