[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201558
SWODY1
SPC AC 201557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 20 N GRR 40 NE
FWA 35 SSE MIE 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 SW BRL 25 NW FNB 25 SW BBW 15
W 9V9 25 S RWF 25 S STC 65 NW CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE
YUM 35 E BLH 60 WSW PRC 40 SSE PRC 50 WNW SAD 15 ESE DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W
COT 15 NNE COT 20 NW NIR 35 NE CRP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 SJT 25 WNW
PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20 SSE DHT 25
NE ROW 70 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW ROC 25 SE MFD
20 E UNI 30 S MRB 15 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE SAN 30 S RAL 15
NNE SBA 40 ENE SMX 15 S BFL 25 NNE BFL 40 ENE SAC 35 E RBL 30 NE RBL
25 N RBL 20 WNW RBL 20 E UKI 10 ESE UKI 35 NNW UKI 25 ENE ACV 40 SE
OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 55 SE 4LW 35 SW WMC 35 SE BAM 25 SW LND 40 S
COD 45 W 3HT 45 SW HVR 30 NW OLF 15 ESE P24 45 WSW JMS 60 NNE ABR 20
N AXN BRD 30 ENE ELO.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB EWD ACROSS MS
VALLEY INTO WRN OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SOUTHERN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS...

...NEB EWD ACROSS SRN MN/IA TO WRN OH VALLEY ...
OVERNIGHT MCS IS MAINTAINING WELL ORGANIZED COLD POOL AND EXPECTED
TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD WRN OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  A
MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD
OF MCS AND COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AS THE CURRENT
LINE OF STORMS ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
NRN IL INTO IND. 

OUTFLOW FROM MCS EXTENDS BACK TO THE W INTO NRN NEB AS COLD FRONT
OVER NWRN MN TO CENTRAL SD CONTINUES SEWD.  STRONG DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED INTO NERN NE/WRN IA IN WAKE OF MORNING MCS WITH MLCAPES
CLIMBING ABOVE 3000 J/KG.  SUFFICIENT SHEAR GIVEN THE VEERING
PROFILES TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ONCE CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST
CONCERN...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE THRU THE
EVENING.

...AZ/SRN CA...
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU
SERN CA AND SRN AZ.  WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE OVER SERN CA/SRN AZ THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000
J/KG.  THE 20-30 KT ELY MID LEVEL FLOW S OF LARGE ELONGATED UPPER
HIGH WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS PROPAGATING OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE STORMS MOVE AWAY
FROM THE MTNS THEY WILL ENCOUNTER THE MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE GREATEST CONCERN AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE EXTENDED A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WWD INTO SERN CA WHERE A VERY
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
MOUNTAINS.  A FEW WILL MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER THE
LIMITING FACTOR HERE FOR SEVERE WILL BE DELAYED HEATING DUE TO
PRESENCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ON THE NRN PORTION OF THE MCS THAT
MOVED WWD ACROSS NRN GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP INTO NWRN AZ/EXTREME SRN NV AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS INTO THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...SRN TX...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEEDER BANDS N OF
HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS SHEAR REMAINS VERY
STRONG.  THREAT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER 00Z AS HURRICANE WEAKENS
RAPIDLY OVER MOUNTAINS OF NERN MEXICO ALONG WITH SHEAR OVER S TX.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.