[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201245
SWODY1
SPC AC 201243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
MQT 15 ENE IMT 50 W RHI 30 N LSE 25 NW MSN 25 SSE MTW 30 NNW GRR 35
SE AZO 35 E IND 30 SW BMG 35 ENE ALN 30 WSW BRL 40 S OMA 25 S MHN 50
NNE VTN 40 NE BKX 20 NE STC 65 NW CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
LRD 15 NNE COT 30 NW NIR 20 E CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW
GBN 25 WSW GBN 25 NNE GBN 40 ENE PHX 20 WSW SAD 15 ESE DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40
ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW
ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20
SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL
40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE
4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS
70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN MBG 25 SSE ABR 45 E ATY 30 NNW STC 35 WSW
HIB 40 ESE INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MO AND
MID MS VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF S TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SRN AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
DOMINANT SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO EXPAND FARTHER N AND E THIS
PERIOD...CONFINING THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS TO ALONG AND N OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  STLT LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK IMPULSES SKIRTING
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...S OF THE MAIN BELT OF WLYS.  THE LEAD
DISTURBANCE...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH MCS NOW OVER MN/IA...SHOULD
CONTINUE ESE INTO IL/IND BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM
FEATURE...NOW IN SE MT...MOVES E/SE INTO SRN MN/NRN IA.  S OF THE
RIDGE...HRCN EMILY WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY W ACROSS NE MEXICO.

AT LWR LEVELS...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH LIFTING
ENE ACROSS ONTARIO EXPECTED TO SETTLE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THE NRN
PLNS/UPR MS VLY AND UPR GRT LKS.  SHALLOW WARM FRONT...NOW EXTENDING
FROM IA SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY...SHOULD MOVE/REDEVELOP NEWD TODAY
AND WEAKEN.

...ERN SD/NE NEB ESE INTO PARTS OF MN/IA/IL AND IND...
OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS NOW IN SE MN/WRN WI AND NRN IA WILL
REINFORCE WRN PART OF WARM FRONT OVER THE MID/UPR MS VLY AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES ESE INTO SRN WI/NW IL LATER THIS
MORNING.  THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN FOR A WHILE AS LLJ REDEVELOPS WWD. 
BUT THE SYSTEM MAY REINTENSIFY OVER NRN/CNTRL IL THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING AND CONTINUED ESE/SE MOTION OF
ASSOCIATED UPR LEVEL IMPULSE.  WHILE DEEP NWLY SHEAR WILL BE
MODEST...THE STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INVOF INSTABILITY AXIS/WARM FRONT IN IL.
 A MORE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY EXTEND AS FAR E AS PARTS OF IND/SW
LWR MI.

FARTHER W...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR LATE TODAY OR THIS
EVENING INVOF COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION OVER SE SD/NE
NEB AND WRN IA AS STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE/LLJ BREAK STRONG CAP. 
STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT N OF THESE BOUNDARIES OVER ERN
SD/SRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
DISTURBANCE NOW IN MT.

STORMS FORMING OVER THE SD/MN/NEB/IA REGION SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN EXPECTED MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG AND 40+ KT DEEP
NWLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT SRN STREAM JET.  WITH STRONG
HEATING FAVORING HIGH LCLS...LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS.  NEVERTHELESS...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED TORNADO
POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP IN COOLER/MORE MOIST AIR JUST N OF STALLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN IA/NE NEB...IF PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY BECOME
ORIENTED TO FAVOR STORM MOTIONS PARALLEL TO IT.

THE SD/MN/NEB/IA STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE OR TWO ESE-MOVING
MCSS THAT PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY....WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT
FOR SEVERE EXTENDING E/SE INTO IL/IND.

...NRN WI/UPR MI...
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL EXIST OVER THIS REGION TODAY
CLOSE TO MAIN BELT OF WLYS.  A FEW STORMS MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT AND POSE A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND.
 
...S TX...
ENHANCED WIND FIELD ON NRN FRINGE OF HRCN "EMILY" WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
W ACROSS S TX TODAY.  THE HRCN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF BEING COMPACT AT
NIGHT...WITH MORE EXPANSIVE PERIPHERAL CONVECTION PRESENT DURING THE
DAY.  THIS TREND MAY BE MAGNIFIED TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
INLAND.  REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION FARTHER FROM THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER PARTS
OF S TX.  THE GREATEST SUCH THREAT SHOULD EXIST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WHEN HEATING WILL BOOST LOW LEVEL CAPE/LAPSE RATES...AND
INVOF OF TOPOGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED CONFLUENCE BAND/TROUGH EXTENDING N
FROM THE WEAKENING CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

...SRN/CNTRL AZ...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE MTNS OF SE AZ/SW NM...WHERE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL /30 KT/ UNIDIRECTIONAL ELY FLOW WILL EXIST AT 500 MB ON
SRN SIDE OF ELONGATING UPR RIDGE.  COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM RECENT ACTIVITY...
VERY DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE STORMS MERGE AND PROPAGATE W ONTO THE LWR
DESERTS.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED PULSE STORMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF LEE
TROUGH OVER WRN NEB LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSE A BRIEF THREAT
FOR HIGH WIND.

..CORFIDI/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.