[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200548
SWODY1
SPC AC 200546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW
ANJ 50 W PLN 45 SSW HTL 25 SSE SBN 45 NNW DNV 10 E BRL 40 S OMA 25 S
MHN 50 NNE VTN 25 SW ATY 20 S BRD 55 N IWD 100 NE CMX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
LRD 60 N BRO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E TOL 25 S CMH 40
ENE CRW 40 SSW MRB 35 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW CZZ 25 SSE RAL
40 SW BFL 15 N UKI 25 ESE CEC 40 SE OTH 55 SE EUG 65 S RDM 40 ENE
4LW 50 S EKO 30 NW MLF 20 NNE CNY CAG 45 ENE RWL 55 SW GCC 60 SW MLS
70 SSW GGW OLF 20 S ISN 45 NNE Y22 65 NE MBG 50 SSE FAR 10 SSE BJI
INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 40 E JCT 30 NNW
ACT 25 WNW PRX 25 ESE MKO 10 SW JLN 40 E EMP 25 SSE SLN 10 S DDC 20
SSE DHT 25 NE ROW 70 SSW GDP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION WSWWD INTO PARTS OF SD / NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS DEEP S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE HURRICANE EMILY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WWD ACROSS NRN
MEXICO S OF EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS...BELT OF
STRONGER / ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NRN U.S. / SRN CANADA.  MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE
ERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THIS STRONGER / SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT FLOW.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO SERN SD / NERN NEB...
MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NERN SD THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SRN MN / NRN IA...WITH AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM SRN IA WNWWD ACROSS NRN NEB / SRN SD.
 THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING ESEWD THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS SRN WI
/ NRN IL...ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS /
HAIL.  THOUGH CONVECTION MAY CROSS NRN IN / LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT...WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WITH EWD EXTENT SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT.

MEANWHILE...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER NW ALONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT / INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MAY
BE LIMITED TO SOME DEGREE ALONG FRONT ACROSS NRN WI / MN BY PRESENCE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS FURTHER S OVER IA / SRN WI.  MORE FAVORED AREA
FOR DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST THOUGH ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD / NRN
NEB...WHERE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. 
THOUGH THIS REGION SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...CONVERGENCE INVOF FRONT SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. BY EARLY EVENING...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
NEAR / JUST N OF BOUNDARY...AIDED BY DEVELOPING SLY LOW-LEVEL JET. 

STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE...AS FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE / SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICIPATED
NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS...AS STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT
IN FAIRLY HIGH LCLS.  A GREATER TORNADO THREAT COULD EXIST WITHIN
POTENTIALLY COOLER / MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS N OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH IA / MN MCS...THOUGH EXISTENCE / LOCATION
OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS LESS THAN CERTAIN ATTM.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN MN / IA...THOUGH
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

...DEEP S TX...
HURRICANE EMILY SHOULD BE INLAND BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW WWD PROGRESS.  THIS HURRICANE IS QUITE COMPACT
ATTM...WITH THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO AREAS S
OF THE RIO GRANDE.  HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF BANDED CONVECTION
FURTHER FROM THE CENTER / NWD INTO S TX WILL BE POSSIBLE.  WITH
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-LEVEL ROTATION S OF
CRP / LRD...WILL MAINTAIN 5% TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THIS REGION.

...SRN HALF OF AZ...
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON / EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SW...AS DAYTIME HEATING / DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WITH UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION...FLOW OVER NRN PORTIONS OF AZ
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK -- AND THUS CONVECTION GENERALLY DISORGANIZED. 
HOWEVER...BELT OF STRONGER ELY FLOW ACROSS SRN AZ MAY ALLOW MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO MOVE WWD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINAL HAIL.  ATTM...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY.  HOWEVER...PARTS OF SRN AZ MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS...IF NAM
INDICATIONS OF SOMEWHAT GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE OVER THIS
REGION PROVE CORRECT.

..GOSS/BANACOS.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.