[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200101
SWODY1
SPC AC 200059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S
LRD 20 S NIR 20 S PSX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
ELO 65 S DLH 15 N FRM 35 WSW SPW 10 WNW YKN 35 SSW 9V9 45 N PHP 30
SSW JMS 75 W RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW
GBN 20 N GBN 35 SE PRC 65 SW SOW 50 SSE SAD 50 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MQT 25 NE LSE
20 NNW DSM GRI 30 W IML 40 ESE AIA 35 SSE PHP 50 ENE 81V 25 WNW JMS
80 NNW GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 E RAL 10 SSW
PMD 10 NNW EDW 60 NE NID 30 N LAS 15 E SGU 40 WSW PGA 50 ENE GCN 70
ESE PGA 25 SSE GUP 20 E GNT 15 SE 4SL 20 N DRO 45 WNW ALS 15 SSE ALS
30 WSW PUB 35 S PUB 10 ESE RTN 45 E LVS 55 E 4CR 45 ESE GDP 30 SSW
P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LRD 40 NW SAT
25 W DUA 15 S JLN 10 NNW VIH 15 NNW EVV 15 SSW LUK 20 ESE PIT 15 ESE
MSV LCI 35 WSW HUL 20 NE CAR.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS S TX...

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NERN ND SWWD INTO
NWRN SD...AS WELL AS SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL SD SWD INTO N
CENTRAL / NWRN NEB.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...SO EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE / INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AIDED BY INTENSIFYING
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

AS DEEP-LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS THAT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

...S CENTRAL AND SERN AZ...
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM REGION AND OVER SERN AZ
ATTM.  FLOW REMAINS WEAK ACROSS CENTRAL AND NRN AZ...THOUGH 20 TO 30
KT ELY / ENELY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN QUARTER OF THE STATE
SHOULD ALLOW STORMS NOW OVER E CENTRAL AND SERN AZ TO CONTINUE
MOVING WWD.  WITH DEEP MIXED LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
GREATER THAN 50 F/ OVER THIS REGION...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

...S TX...
HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF NERN
MEXICO...AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED 120 NM SE OF BRO.  THOUGH BANDING
IS CURRENTLY LIMITED ATTM N OF THE CENTER...A FEW BROKEN BANDS
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF S TX.  WITHIN THESE
BANDS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS DEEP S TX
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 07/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.