[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192005
SWODY1
SPC AC 192003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E
ELO 70 S DLH 15 NNW MKT 20 WSW SPW 10 ENE YKN 45 SE 9V9 50 SW MBG 40
E Y22 75 NNW GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW
GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW
ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV
45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15
NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL
20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 40 NW TAD 15 NNW
LIC 25 ESE SNY 20 ENE AIA 25 SSE RAP 15 SE REJ 35 NNE REJ 35 NE DIK
20 SSE MOT 85 NE MOT ...CONT... 25 NNW MQT LSE 40 SSW ALO 30 W OTM
30 WSW IRK 35 NE COU 15 NNW ALN 35 SW HUF 40 NW CMH 20 NNW FKL 25 SE
ROC 30 ENE MSS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS S TX....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
SRN AZ....

...ERN DAKOTAS/NW IA/MN AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING NWD OVER THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A
LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...AND A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD
INTO NW ND/NE MT.  THOUGH MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY
PRIOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE KS...IT APPEARS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL REACH ERN ND/NW MN BY THIS
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE
RETURNING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A SUBSTANTIAL CAP.
 

INITIAL HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT APPROACHING S CENTRAL ND/N
CENTRAL SD...WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE CAP. 
OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM INVOF THE COLD FRONT BY EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS ERN ND/NW MN AS THE LOW LEVELS DESTABILIZE AND ASCENT
INCREASES.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KT
WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY...AND BOWING SEGMENTS
OVERNIGHT AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

...NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM WRN
MAINE/NH TO SE NY.  THIS CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR 2500 J/KG...BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID
70S AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 88-90 F.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER FLOW
FIELDS ARE WEAK...THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

...S TX THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...
HURRICANE EMILY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NE MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  MEANWHILE...THE
OUTER NRN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD S TX...ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  EXPECT THE THREAT FOR
RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES TO PERSIST THROUGH
20/12Z ACROSS S TX.

...SRN AZ THROUGH TONIGHT...
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.  THOUGH THE LOWER DESERTS STILL
APPEAR TO BE CAPPED...WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V
PROFILES MAY SUPPORT WWD PROPAGATION OVER THE LOWER DESERTS WITH AN
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS.

...VA AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO
NRN/CENTRAL VA IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. 
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A
FEW STORMS WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  PLEASE
REFER TO MD 1781 FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM INFORMATION.

...KS AREA...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS S CENTRAL/CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AREA...BUT THE LONGER TERM
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAKENING OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND WEAK MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW.

..THOMPSON.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.