[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191557
SWODY1
SPC AC 191555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9
25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW
GBN 35 WNW PHX 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S
HUL 25 NE AUG 10 S PWM 15 N BOS 25 WNW PVD 20 SW BDL 15 NE POU 40 SW
ALB 20 WNW GFL 30 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CNY 60 WNW 4HV
45 N TPH 25 WNW BIH 70 ENE MER 25 WNW TVL 35 WNW RNO 25 ESE WMC 15
NW IDA 30 NE JAC 35 NNW RIW 30 NW CAG 30 NE CNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 10 WNW RAL
20 SW PMD 10 W EDW 20 ENE LAS 45 SW PGA 40 WSW 4SL 35 WNW TAD 25 NNE
AKO 25 SSW Y22 35 WSW DIK 65 NNW MLS 30 NNW HVR ...CONT... 25 NNW
MQT VOK 15 WNW CID 20 WNW OTM 10 SW IRK 45 W STL 40 E IND CLE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

...NEW ENGLAND...
...REF MCD 1777...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE WEAK
COOL FRONT THAT STRETCHES WSWWD FROM JUST N OF ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO
THE MID MS VALLEY.  TROUGH CROSSING SERN CANADA WILL JUST BRUSH NERN
STATES AS STRONGER WINDS AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD MOTION REMAIN MOSTLY
IN CANADA.  HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH
STRONG HEATING CONDITIONS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY
VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.  SEVERE THREAT WILL BE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO WET DOWNBURSTS WITH THE WARM LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL
DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...AZ...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AZ AS
ACTIVE MCS TRACKING WWD ACROSS GULF OF CA OVERNIGHT HAS ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL SLY FLOW NOTED PARTICULARLY ON THE VAD WINDS AT YUM.

VERY STRONG HEATING AGAIN TODAY AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVES
WWD OUT OF SRN AZ WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MDT INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH LCLS THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW HAS
TURNED TO MORE ELY ACROSS SRN AZ AS UPPER HIGH HAS BUILT SOMEWHAT
EWD. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SERN AZ TO PROPAGATE SWWD/WWD INTO A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SCENTRAL AZ BY THIS
EVENING. STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT MOVE INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.  ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS PROPAGATE ACROSS SRN
DESERTS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET IS RAPIDLY RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD
THRU CENTRAL INTO NRN PLAINS TODAY AS BAND OF STRONG WLYS DEVELOP
EWD ALONG CANADIAN  BORDER.  ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT CINH TO DELAY DEVELOPMENT OF
SURFACE THUNDERSTORM UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS PROCESS ALLOWS A
VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG INTO ERN DAKOTAS.

RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE N/S TROUGH LINE THAT WILL
BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY...VERY LARGE
HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY THREAT ALONG WITH RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.


SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO MN DURING EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS COOL FRONT CATCHES UP WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOVES EWD
ACROSS NRN MN.

...S TX...
OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH HURRICANE EMILY WITH BE APPROACHING FAR
S TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACCOMPANYING THREAT OF SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THREAT SHOULD NOT SPREAD MUCH N OF 28N LATITUDE
AS EMILY TRACKS INTO THE NERN MEXICO COAST TO S OF BRO REF NHC FCST.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.