[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191228
SWODY1
SPC AC 191226

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
CMX 50 NE MSP 20 NNW MCW 45 WSW FOD 30 SW SUX 40 WSW YKN 15 NE 9V9
25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 SSE
GBN 25 ENE GBN 35 ENE PHX 50 NNW SAD 25 E SAD 50 E DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50
SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W GJT 50 N ELY 60
ESE OWY 35 NE MLD 30 NE JAC 60 NW RIW 20 NE RKS 30 W GJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15
SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15
SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW
P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW ...CONT... 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK
15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60
ESE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR
MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF DEEP S TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES THIS PERIOD...
WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.  WHILE
THE TWO STRONG JET STREAKS DEPICTED ATTM IN WV DATA OVER SRN AB AND
THE ERN GULF OF AK MAY AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY...THE BULK OF THEIR
INFLUENCE SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE BORDER.  FARTHER S...STLT LOOPS 
SHOW SEVERAL IMPULSES SKIRTING FRINGE OF PERSISTENT SWRN U.S. RIDGE.
 ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS NOW ENTERING WY AND SHOULD CONTINUE E
INTO CNTRL SD BY THE END OF THE DAY.  FARTHER E...IMPULSE WHICH
AFFECTED THE UPR LKS YESTERDAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE
INTO QUEBEC.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AB
SPEED MAX SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS THEY DROP SE ACROSS MT/ND LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A N-S WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED OVER THE ERN DAKS/WRN MN...ON BACK SIDE OF COOL HIGH
NOW CENTERED OVER THE UPR GRT LKS.  ELSEWHERE...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT HRCN EMILY WILL AFFECT PARTS OF S TX LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS THE NRN PLNS THIS MORNING
AS FRONT WHICH SETTLED S ACROSS REGION YESTERDAY REDEVELOPS NWD.
MEANWHILE...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF CANADIAN SPEED MAX
WILL SPREAD A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ ACROSS THE REGION
...WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO RISE TO AOA 12C EWD TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH STRENGTHENING EML WILL LEAD TO
STRONG TO EXTREME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE ERN DAKS AND NW MN.  STRONG CAP LIKELY WILL SUPPRESS STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE DAKS...DESPITE
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG COLD FRONT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH.  BUT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE
EVENING INVOF SURFACE TRIPLE POINT OVER NE ND/NW MN...WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE GREATEST AND CAPPING WEAKEST.  WITH TIME...
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM SWD ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND/OR
ALONG WARM FRONT INTO FAR ERN SD/SW MN...AIDED BY STRENGTHENING LLJ.

GIVEN COMBINATION OF STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO 4000 J
PER KG/ AND 40-50 KT DEEP SHEAR...A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN NE ND AND NRN/WRN MN.
OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG AND BEHIND
MERGING COLD FRONT/TROUGH...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH
WIND.

...DEEP S TX...
THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF HRCN "EMILY" SHOULD AFFECT PARTS OF S TX
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY WEDNESDAY...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
AND NHC FORECASTS.  COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
ALREADY IN PLACE WITH VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL POSE A RISK
FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/POSSIBLE TORNADOES DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY.

...CNTRL/SRN AZ AND SW NM...
PERSISTENT NRN AZ UPR RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ELONGATE EWD TODAY AS
WLY FLOW INCREASES TO ITS NORTH.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
VEERING OF THE MEAN MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN AZ TO ENELY.  GIVEN
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE LEFT FROM YESTERDAY'S
CONVECTION...AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE APPARENT IN STLT IMAGERY...
EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FORM AS STRONG HEATING OCCURS
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. 
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN PROPAGATE W OR WSW INTO VERY DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE LWR DESERTS...WHERE MERGING OUTFLOWS COULD
YIELD A FEW CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WIND.

...NY/PA/NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR IMPULSE NOW ENTERING QUEBEC WILL
MOVE E INTO WRN NY TODAY AND WEAKEN...PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK
TROUGHS.  PREDOMINANT WLY FLOW INVOF THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP
CONVERGENCE WEAK.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH SURFACE HEATING EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL FORM/INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND...MORE LIKELY...
ALONG PREFRONTAL TROUGHS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON.  MOIST UNCAPPED AIR
AND MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/
CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS.  BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND ABSENCE OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.