[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 190559
SWODY1
SPC AC 190558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT TUE JUL 19 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S
LRD 45 SSW ALI 35 SE CRP.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
CMX 50 NE MSP 10 SSW SUX 50 NNE BUB 15 NE 9V9 25 W ABR 65 WNW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 30 N RAL 15
SW LAS 10 NW GCN 55 N INW 35 NW GUP 35 SSW FMN 40 E GUC 25 S DEN 15
SSW LIC 55 WSW GLD 40 SW MCK 40 SSW MHN 10 NE PHP 35 E Y22 20 SSW
P24 25 SSE ISN 10 NW OLF 65 NW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW ANJ 35 ENE VOK
15 WNW CID 25 WNW LWD 35 ESE STJ 30 WSW COU 30 SSE SPI 45 NNW MFD 60
ESE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S BIH 40 W BIH 50
SSW TVL 60 SSW SVE 20 E SVE 40 WNW LOL 25 E NFL 10 NW TPH 35 S BIH.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
AS TRAILING PORTION OF ERN CANADA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A SECOND TROUGH WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE.  STRONG /60 TO 70 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...WITH STRONGEST FLOW FORECAST JUST N OF THE
U.S. / CANADA BORDER.  

WEAK FRONT / TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH ERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE NERN CONUS...WHILE STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF SECOND TROUGH.

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NERN
MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.  MEANWHILE...BELT OF
MODERATELY-STRONG WLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL ADVECT STEEP LAPSE
RATES EWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING OF
CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY
AFTERNOON.  THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY
CAP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN ND -- AND PERHAPS SWD
ACROSS SD ALONG LEE TROUGH.  STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO
THE EVENING AS FRONT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MN / ERN ND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN SD...AIDED BY INCREASING WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / LAPSE RATES...40 TO 50 KT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED...WITH SLY / SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERING / INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KTS FROM THE W AT MID LEVELS BY
AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR...WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 
OVERNIGHT...STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME MORE LINEAR ALONG / AHEAD OF
FRONT...WHILE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL CONTINUES.  

...NEW ENGLAND...
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP / INCREASE AHEAD OF COLD FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN DESTABILIZING AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE FRONT /
TROUGH.  THOUGH FAVORABLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW A FEW MORE
VIGOROUS STORMS TO EVOLVE...OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
 THOUGH A DAMAGING GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS...EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN MARGINAL / LIMITED
OVERALL.

...SERN AZ AND VICINITY...
AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD AGAIN FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN
NM / SERN AZ AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.  ENHANCED ELY FLOW ALOFT
AROUND S SIDE OF UPPER HIGH SHOULD PROMOTE WWD MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY ABOVE
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD YIELD A FEW STRONGER STORMS / STORM
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG / DAMAGING WINDS.

...S TX...
HURRICANE EMILY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NERN MEXICO
COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SPREADING EWD
ACROSS S TX DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THUS POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS AREA.

..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.