[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181607
SWODY1
SPC AC 181605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55
ESE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 SSW IGM
55 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW 20 W FMN 35 SE MTJ 10 SSE
EGE FCL AKO 35 NNE GLD 30 NE CNK 35 SSE P35 20 W BRL 10 NE DBQ 35 W
LNR 25 WNW CWA 60 N CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY...

...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...
VIGOROUS SUMMERTIME TROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY CONTINUES EWD WITH A S/WV
IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATING ACROSS LWR
GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM RATHER
DEEP LOW W OF JAMES BAY SWD THRU ERN LS AND THEN ARCING SWWD ACROSS
LM INTO NRN MO THEN ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE INTO ERN NM.

A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDES THE COLD FRONT WITH THE MOST
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOWER MI WHERE MLCAPES CURRENTLY IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT NWRN LOWER MI WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND  DOWN THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES
EWD.  GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS AND GENERALLY MDT BUT UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES...STORMS WILL TEND TO DEVELOP INTO SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS/BOW WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

DURING THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT NRN OH VALLEY.  SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER THIS
AREA...HOWEVER WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DAMAGING WINDS AND TO A
LESSOR EXTENT LARGE HAIL WILL BE A THREAT.

SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
HEATING AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS OH VALLEY.

......LOWER MO VALLEY WWD TO EAST SLOPES  OF CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SRN MO WWD ACROSS WRN KS/NRN OK TO EAST SLOPES OF
ROCKIES.  WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE
LOCALIZED IN AREAS OF FAVORABLE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY.

A LITTLE BETTER SHEAR NERN NM/SERN CO...ALONG WITH UPSLOPE COULD
RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER THE WARM
LAPSE RATES WILL MINIMIZE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

...SRN AZ...
ONLY REAL DIFFERENCES FROM SUNDAY ARE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE LOWER
THIS AM SERN AZ WITH THE MORNING CLOUD COVER.  OTHERWISE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE. WITH STRONG HEATING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEERING
FLOW ON E SIDE OF UPPER HIGH STILL FROM THE N/NE 15-20 KTS WHICH
WILL AGAIN FAVOR PROPAGATION OF MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE DESERTS
WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.

WILL REEVALUATE RISK POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE IF COVERAGE OF MOUNTAIN STORMS IS SUFFICIENT FOR AN
ORGANIZED COLD POOL TO DEVELOP INTO DESERT VALLEYS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 07/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.