[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181241
SWODY1
SPC AC 181240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
JHW 15 W HLG 20 NW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 35 SSW CGX 35 SE MBL 55
ESE ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM
60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE
FCL AKO 30 SSW MCK 25 NE CNK 20 NW IRK 40 WSW LNR 10 WNW RHI 55 N
CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GRT LKS AND
OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY AND BEGIN TO
TURN MORE ENE LATER THIS PERIOD AS RIDGES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.  EXPECT NRN PART OF COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH MN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E TO THE LWR GRT LKS...WHILE
THE SRN PART WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS.

...GRT LKS/OH VLY...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THE UPR GRT LKS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY AS
UPR TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE INTO ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STORM REINTENSIFICATION/REDEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONT.  BUT DEEP WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT...
ESPECIALLY OVER LWR MI AND IND/NRN OH...TO SUPPORT ORGANIZATION INTO
LINES WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS.  WHILE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
LIMIT CAPE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...EWD TO THE
LWR LKS.

FARTHER SW...WEAKER UPR FLOW WILL FAVOR LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. 
BUT PRESENCE OF SOMEWHAT STEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY 
SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG PULSE STORMS WITH ISOLATED
HAIL/WIND THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MO/KS AND NRN OK.

...S CNTRL/SE CO INTO NRN/ERN NM AND THE WRN OK/TX PNHDLS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD W INTO THE SRN RCKYS IN WAKE OF
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOSING S ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HI PLNS.  COUPLED
WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING...REGION SHOULD SEE
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON.  SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH
MODEST NNWLY UPR FLOW WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.  LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK. BUT IF ENOUGH STORMS DO
FORM...CONSOLIDATION INTO A S OR SSE-MOVING MCS MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE
OF PARTS OF SRN CO AND NRN/ERN NM TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...SRN AZ...
SLIGHT W/E ELONGATION OF PERSISTENT UPR RIDGE RELATIVE TO RECENT
DAYS EXPECTED TO VEER MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION OVER
SE AZ TODAY...AND POSSIBLY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NRN PART OF THE STATE.  THE UPR FLOW SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN
DIFFLUENT OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS...WHERE WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS WEAK
IMPULSES WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP S ALONG ERN FRINGE OF RIDGE. 
THUS...SETUP SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL
STORMS OVER THE ERN RIM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ/SW NM. 
POTENTIAL WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS THE
ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SW INTO THE LWR DESERTS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.