[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180543
SWODY1
SPC AC 180541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ERI 25 NE ZZV 25 NNW LUK 25 ENE VIH 45 SSW UIN 15 NW PIA MKG 55 ESE
ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 10 E IGM
60 S SGU 45 NNW GCN 45 NNW INW 65 NE INW CEZ 35 SE MTJ 10 WSW EGE
FCL AKO MCK LNK 35 NNE DSM LSE IWD 70 NNW CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LOWER MI / THE MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD FROM THE N CENTRAL CONUS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / ONTARIO...WITHIN MAIN BELT OF WLYS ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS / SRN CANADA.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT --
INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO KS --
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE NRN PORTIONS OF FRONT CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION...
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EWD ALONG COLD FRONT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
THE START OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS.  FRONT
SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO.  HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE REINTENSIFICATION - REDEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA -- TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL-SCALE LINES.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.

FURTHER SWWD...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS MORE DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN SEVERE PROBABILITY.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SHIFTING EWD INTO
THE LOWER LAKES / UPPER OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

...HIGH PLAINS OF CO / NERN NM...
SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS WEAKENING COLD FRONT DRIFTS SWD ACROSS CO / NERN NM.  DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AND WITH SELYS
AT LOW-LEVELS BENEATH MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / ROTATING STORMS.  NAM APPEARS TO BE MUCH
MORE BULLISH WITH DESTABILIZATION /DUE TO OVERACTIVE SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE SCHEME/ AS COMPARED TO NAMKF RUN...AND THUS WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY 5% THREAT FOR HAIL / WIND ATTM.  HOWEVER...MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WOULD LIKELY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE
TO SLIGHT RISK GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

...CENTRAL AND SRN AZ...
STORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THEN MOVE SWWD OFF THE RIM INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON.  WITH NAM DEPICTING 25 TO 30 KT NELY MID-LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS SERN AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING...A FEW STRONGER
STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS. DEPENDING UPON DEGREE OF MOISTENING / DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
THIS REGION...AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER
FORECASTS.

..GOSS/TAYLOR.. 07/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.