[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180102
SWODY1
SPC AC 180101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
AUW 25 N DBQ 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 35 ESE LBL 10 W CAO 30
ENE TAD 20 SSW LIC 45 NW GLD 45 SSW BBW 15 WSW SPW 20 SSE STC 55 N
EAU 25 NNE AUW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 35 SW BWD
MWL 40 SE SGF 55 NW CGI 35 SE UIN 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65
S LBL 35 SW TCC 40 SW ROW 20 W ELP ...CONT... 60 SSW GBN 70 ENE BLH
50 E IGM 40 SW GUP FMN 50 NW ALS 50 NNW 4FC 10 S LAR 20 NNE SNY 20
SW FSD 35 S AXN 40 W INL ...CONT... 80 W CAR 3B1 PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES SWWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND BEHIND COLD FRONT...WHICH
NOW EXTENDS FROM NERN MN SSWWD INTO NWRN IA...THEN SWWD INTO SERN
CO.  THOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS INVOF FRONTAL
ZONE...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS WELL TO THE COOL SIDE
OF SURFACE FRONT.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY DISORGANIZED
STORMS THUS FAR...ALONG WITH ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT.

THOUGH DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE SRN AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GREATEST
THREAT -- PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS
FROM WRN IA SWWD INTO N CENTRAL KS NEAR AND JUST BEHIND FRONT THIS
EVENING.

...SERN AZ...
STORMS CONTINUE MOVING SWD / SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SERN AZ
THROUGH MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS...AIDED BY BELT OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL NLY / NELY FLOW AROUND SRN NV HIGH.  AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REVEALED BY RADAR OVER THE PAST
HOUR...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS 
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

..GOSS.. 07/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.