[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171955
SWODY1
SPC AC 171954

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW
ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 25 SSE OTM 10 ESE FLV 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25
N CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35
W RRT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW
TUS 25 WSW PHX 40 SE PRC 25 SSW SOW 40 NE SAD 35 ESE DUG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07
40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N
CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 60
ESE BLH 20 NE IGM BCE CAG 30 NE LAR 25 WNW MHN 45 N VTN 30 W ABR 40
N JMS 70 NNW DVL ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.  SURFACE
COLD FRONT ARCS FROM NWRN MN SWWD ACROSS EXTREME SERN SD...CENTRAL
NEB INTO EAST CENTRAL CO.  THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD AND
SEWD REACHING AN ERN LAKE SUPERIOR/SWRN WI/NWRN MO/NERN NM LINE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO...
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING A MOIST LOW
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S.  TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS
THIS AREA CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. 
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION FROM WRN MN AND THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NERN NEB...ABOVE
CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 700 MB BASED ON LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
SOUNDINGS.  STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEPENING MOIST LAYER IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP...
INITIALLY OVER NRN MN THEN EXTENDING SWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
INTO SRN MN/NWRN IA INTO NERN NEB.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NRN/CENTRAL MN AROUND 21-22Z WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING SWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO SRN MN/EXTREME SERN SD/NWRN IA
AND NERN NEB BY 23-00Z.  STRONG LINEAR FORCING INDICATES LIKELIHOOD
OF BROKEN LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING EWD/SEWD
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF 50-60 KT MID
LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PRIMARILY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE MOST
FAVORABLE REGION FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN MN WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED BY A VEERING WIND PROFILE.  PRESENCE OF
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND DRY AIR ABOVE THE PBL WILL ENHANCE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH ATTENDANT THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO
PARTS OF UPPER MI..WI..AND CENTRAL/ERN IA...AND POSSIBLY NERN KS AND
NWRN MO TONIGHT.

...WRN/CENTRAL KS INTO ERN CO...
MOIST EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF WRN KS AND ERN CO IN THE WAKE OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL AID CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FRONT RANGE AND NERN CO ALONG SRN
EDGE OF STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WHERE MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN DEEP
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

OTHER SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS KS WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 1500-2000
J/KG) MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK THE CAP.  PRIMARY DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR MORE SLOWLY ACROSS
THIS AREA. COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FRONT AS A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AFTER DARK OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND INCREASES
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION LIFT.

...PARTS OF AZ/SWRN NM...
THUNDERSTORM ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...SUGGESTING THAT SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE TODAY.  12Z SOUNDINGS AT PHX AND TUS INDICATED PW IN THE
1.2-1.4 INCH RANGE AND CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW/MID
50S OVER THE LOWER DESERTS.  VAD WINDS AT FSX/IWA/EMX EXHIBIT 20-25
KT NLY FLOW SUGGESTING STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.  DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY STORM THAT
CAN PROPAGATE SWD INTO THE WELL MIXED AND VERY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
OVER THE DESERTS WITH THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..WEISS.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.