[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171600
SWODY1
SPC AC 171558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW
ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM MKC 15 SE HUT 25 SE LBL 25 N CAO
50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 45 W AKO 45 NW GLD 40 NE MCK 15 SE YKN 35 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 60 ESE BLH
20 NE IGM 50 NNW GCN CAG 30 NE LAR 25 ESE MHN 45 SSW 9V9 50 E MBG 50
NNE MOT ...CONT... 65 SSW P07 35 WNW P07 40 WSW SPS 45 SW JLN 25 WNW
TBN STL BMI 25 SE MLI 20 NNE SZL 10 N CNU 35 WNW END 65 S LBL 40 S
DHT 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 45 NW CAR 20 NE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON TO WRN GREAT LAKES BY MON AM. ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED EWD TO EXTEND AT 15Z FROM ERN ND SSWWD INTO CENTRAL
NEB THEN WSWWD TO VICINITY PALMER DIVIDE IN ERN CO.
30-40KT SSWLY LLJ CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT.


GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF MN WILL ALLOW STRONG HEATING
PRIOR TO INITIATION OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE.  MODEL SOUNDINGS IMPLY THAT CIN WILL DISSIPATE AS SFC
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW 90S ALLOWING RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY MID
AFTERNOON WRN MN WHEN MLCAPES WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 J/KG. 
THE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS NERN MN/ARROWHEAD
WHERE LONGER DURATION OF HEATING AND SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE.

THE FORCING AND STRONG MID LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THUS DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
30KT WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE AS THE STORMS TEND TO
EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MODE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

IN NRN MN SHEAR WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THAT AREA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY SINCE MLCAPES THIS AREA COULD BE AS
HIGH AS 3000 J/KG.  THUS HAVE ADDED A LOW PROB OF TORNADOES AS WELL
AS INCREASE THE HAIL THREAT INTO NRN MN.

THE THREAT OF AT LEAST WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET EWD INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AS THE STRONGER WINDS WITH THE
TROUGH ROTATE THRU THIS AREA.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING FRONT RANGE ERN CO...

THE STRONG PUSH OF COLD FRONT SHOULD EASE BY AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
LOCATION EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB WSWWD TO JUST S OF PALMER DIVIDE. 
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN NEB TO ERN CO.  WHILE UPPER FLOW IS
GENERALLY WEAK...THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. WHILE FLOW
IS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT BOWS OR LINE SEGMENTS...THE DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE STRONG GIVEN THE LARGE T/TD SPREADS AND DRY MID
LEVELS.

...SRN AZ...
APPEARS ATTM TO BE A GREATER THREAT OF STORMS DEVELOPING SWD OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM TODAY THAN THERE HAS
BEEN RECENTLY. ALTHOUGH PW'S HAVE CHANGED LITTLE PAST 24
HOURS...THERE IS GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ON MORNING SOUNDINGS. 
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE N/NELY 15-25 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS ON THE
E SIDE OF LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SIERRAS.  WITH MOISTURE PROFILES
FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND
GREATER STORM MOTION TOWARD THE DESERTS...EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST STRONG OUTFLOW INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN BY THE TIME OF THE AFTERNOON OUTLOOK...THEN AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..HALES/GUYER.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.