[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171237
SWODY1
SPC AC 171235

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW
ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 25 SE LBL 20
WNW CAO 50 W COS 25 ENE 4FC 30 NNW LIC 45 NW GLD 30 E LBF 35 SE MHE
25 NE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM
...CONT... 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15 SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40
ENE TUL 35 NNW UNO STL 10 NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 55 NW COU 10 N CNU 35
WNW END 60 WSW GAG 20 ENE CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE
YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC 50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 30 NW GJT 10 NE CAG 30
NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 10 E 4BQ 50 SW MLS
65 NNE GGW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
SW INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER MT/WY WILL CONTINUE E
INTO MN/IA AND ATTAIN MAXIMUM AMPLIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS SWRN RIDGE RETROGRESSES SLIGHTLY INTO WRN AZ.  COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH MT/WY IMPULSE SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY S AND
E...REACHING A MQT/MSN/IRK/ICT/CVS LINE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS SW INTO ERN NEB/KS...
COMBINATION OF STRONG SURFACE HEATING...LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD WEAKEN EXISTING
CAP AND PROMOTE CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG NRN PLNS/UPR MS VLY COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS MEAN MLCAPE RISES TO AOA 2000 J/KG.  

WHILE CAPE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
BE QUITE STEEP...IT APPEARS THAT CONFIGURATION OF UPPER TROUGH
RELATIVE TO FRONT WILL TEND TO MITIGATE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WITH
TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SEWD WELL BEHIND SURFACE FRONT...MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO BACK WITH TIME AND BECOME PARALLEL TO
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IN NRN/CNTRL MN. THIS SHOULD FAVOR FAIRLY
QUICK EVOLUTION OF ANY DISCRETE STORMS INTO LINE SEGMENTS...DESPITE
PRESENCE OF 40+ KT DEEP SHEAR. SOMEWHAT GREATER ACROSS-BOUNDARY
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT OVER IA/NEB AND KS...BUT CAP WILL BE STRONGER
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT RATHER WEAK.

AT ANY RATE...GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHARP FOCUS FOR LOW
LEVEL ASCENT PROVIDED BY FRONT...EXPECT THAT A BAND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL DEVELOP
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM MN SWWD INTO ERN/SRN NEB.  IN THE
MEANTIME...SCATTERED POST-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER ERN
ND/WRN MN.  THE MN CONVECTION COULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT
REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO WI/UPR MI THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT BENEATH 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW.  FARTHER
S...NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ AND MORE WIDESPREAD
AVAILABILITY OF STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT NEB
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCSS.  THESE
SYSTEMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HIGH WIND AND HAIL AS THEY MOVE
GENERALLY SE INTO PARTS OF KS AND IA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

...CNTRL HI PLNS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND WRN KS IN WAKE OF SWD-MOVING
COLD FRONT.  WHILE THE PREDOMINANT ANTICYCLONIC NATURE OF THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT WILL BE NEGATIVE FACTORS...SETUP
COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE HEATING AND
MOISTURE INFLUX BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG.  A THREAT WILL
EXIST FOR HAIL AND HIGH WIND BEFORE THE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER OR TWO THAT CONTINUE S/SE TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION THIS EVENING.

...CNTRL/ERN AZ INTO WRN NM...
SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF SWRN RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT MID/UPPER
LEVEL NLY FLOW OVER THE ERN HALF OF AZ/WRN NM. THIS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN FAVOR S/SSW MOTION OF STORMS FORMING OVER THE RIM AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SE AZ.  ACTIVITY MAY BE MODULATED BY WEAK IMPULSES
SHED SWD FROM MT/WY TROUGH...AND COULD MERGE INTO A CLUSTER OR TWO
THAT PRODUCE GUSTY WIND.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.