[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170509
SWODY1
SPC AC 170508

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 17 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 100 NW
ANJ 45 NE GRB 35 W JVL 35 SSE OTM 10 NNW OJC 10 NNW ICT 15 ENE LBL
35 SSW LHX 45 WNW COS 15 ENE 4FC 30 SW AKO 45 SW IML 30 E LBF 35 SE
MHE 25 NE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S P07 15 SW ABI 15
SSW SPS 30 ESE OKC 20 SSE TUL 40 ENE TUL 30 WSW UMN 10 NNE STL 10
NNW CMI 35 NNW PIA 30 NNE SZL 20 W CNU 30 SSE P28 65 NNE AMA 20 ENE
CVS 10 SW GDP 75 SSW GDP ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 60 NW GBN 45 WNW PRC
50 NNW GCN 20 NW U17 15 WSW GJT 35 SE CAG 30 NE LAR 30 S CDR 45 WNW
VTN 25 NNE PIR 45 NNW MBG 60 NNW REJ 35 W GDV 65 NNE GGW ...CONT...
40 WNW 3B1 25 NE PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE NRN / CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
EWD / SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH WELL AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. 
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLE REGION.

...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF ND
AND PERHAPS NWRN MN...INVOF COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
 STORMS SHOULD THEN BEGIN DEVELOPING SWD ALONG FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS WARM SECTOR AIRMASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
STORMS SHOULD BE LARGELY CONFINED TO THE ZONE ALONG AND BEHIND
FRONT...AS CAPPING WITHIN WARM SECTOR SHOULD LARGELY SUPPRESS
PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT.

DESPITE STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...STORM
INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...AS ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER NRN PORTIONS OF
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHERE FRONT SHOULD MOVE MOST RAPIDLY EWD. 
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY
EXIST FROM ERN CO NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION -- AND THUS
WILL INTRODUCE 25% HAIL PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. 
ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD...IN TANDEM WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.

..GOSS.. 07/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.