[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162003
SWODY1
SPC AC 162001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
RRT ABR 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 25 NNW SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE GGW
60 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N
IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW
GEG 40 NNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW
BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 30 W SZL OMA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORTICITY MAX MOVING ESEWD ACROSS
EXTREME SERN BC. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS BY
17/12Z.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER EXTREME NERN MT WILL DEVELOP
INTO NWRN ND THIS EVENING CONTINUING INTO SRN MANITOBA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS REACHING AN ERN ND/NORTH
CENTRAL NEB/NERN CO LINE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS SRN ND THEN NWWD INTO THE SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH TONIGHT.

...NRN PLAINS...
ELEVATED CONVECTION ORIGINATING ABOVE A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN MT AND ND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF
THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS INTO ERN SD AND CENTRAL/SRN MN IS SPREADING
NWWD INTO EXTREME ERN MT...ND AND NRN MN WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS
ARE INCREASING TO THE LOW 60S IN ERN MT AND THE 65-70F RANGE IN ND
AND NRN MN.  A PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM) ATOP A
CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 850 MB IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG OVER WRN AND SRN
ND.

THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED
WARMING OF THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER NERN WY/SERN MT INTO SD IS
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXCEEDING 100F IN SOME LOCATIONS. 
WARMING COUPLED WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
PARTS OF ERN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT...NWRN SD AND WRN ND BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
EWD TONIGHT INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS ND AND WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT AND INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE DAKOTAS.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT MAY
TRANSITION TOWARD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN SD AND ND BEFORE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
DIMINISHES LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...AZ/NM...
A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MTNS OF SWRN NM WWD INTO PARTS
OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OF AZ.  THESE STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SWWD WITHIN A
BAND OF 20 KT NELY MID LEVEL WINDS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER NRN AZ.  PRESENCE OF DEEP WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MICROBURSTS TO OCCUR.

..WEISS.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.