[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161618
SWODY1
SPC AC 161617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ENE 81V 30 NE SHR 50 E BIL 55 S GGW 20 ESE
GGW 60 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML 20 SE EWB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 60 ESE EED 55 N
IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 10 WNW TVL OWY 80 NE BOI S80 40 SW
GEG 40 NNW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 N OFK 30 NNW
BBW IML 45 NW EHA 40 NNW TCC TCC 50 NW CDS 30 SW JLN 10 NE SZL OMA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
IMPRESSIVE MID-SUMMER TROUGH MOVING THRU PAC NW FORECASTED TO
AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES NRN PLAINS TONIGHT.  LEAD S/WV IMPULSE
COUPLED WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION RESPONSIBLE FOR ACTIVE MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS WRN ND. TRAILING 60PLUS KT 500MB JET MAX WILL TRACK
ESEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND ERN MT WILL
DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACH OF THE STRONG UPPER
TROUGH/COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE HEATING.

WITH THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER SPREADING EWD...THE CAP WILL BE STRONG
MUCH OF AFTERNOON INTO WRN DAKOTAS/ERN MT.  HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE VERY WARM AOA 100F INTO WRN
PORTIONS OF DAKOTAS WHICH WILL RESULT IN CAP WEAKENING SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION.  ACROSS ERN MT/NERN WY
INTO WRN SD THE STRONG WLY COMPONENT WILL QUICKLY DRY LOWER
LEVELS...REDUCING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.
FURTHER E ACROSS ND THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG BUT THE CAP WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE UNTIL THIS
EVENING.  CURRENT ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS LEAD IMPULSE
MOVES NEWD INTO SRN CANADA THIS AFTERNOON.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS ERN MT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY
THREAT DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN UP TO 60KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

DURING THE EVENING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO ND WHERE A MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ENCOUNTERED.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE
SUPERCELL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH INCREASING THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.  A SEVERE MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
DURING THE EVENING ACROSS MOSTLY ND NWD INTO SRN CANADA CONTINUING
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

...SERN AZ...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LIMITED FOR ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE T/TD SPREADS WILL CONTINUE
THREAT FOR BRIEF STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HIGH BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND TRY TO
PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT VALLEYS THIS EVENING PRIOR TO
DISSIPATING IN THE MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORM COULD SPREAD ACROSS DESERT VALLEYS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.