[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161313
SWODY1
SPC AC 161311

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W
RRT 40 S BIS 35 NW PHP 45 ESE 81V 35 NNW 81V 35 NNE COD 25 SSE 3HT
20 SSW GGW 70 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE BML 10 NE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE YUM 60 ESE EED
55 N IGM 55 NNE LAS 40 NW NID 20 N FAT 15 NW TVL 25 NE OWY 80 NE BOI
25 NNW S80 40 WSW GEG 50 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E DSM 20 SE YKN 30
SE ANW 20 S IML 25 WNW AMA 40 NW CDS 30 SSE END 30 SW JLN 35 WNW COU
30 E DSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR BACKWARD GEN TSTM LINE OVER CENTRAL CONUS

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW NEARING THE BC/AB BORDER SHOULD AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS
JET MAX NOW ENTERING WRN WA/ORE /PER WATER VAPOR/ CONTINUES E/SEWD. 
LEAD IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH BC/AB LOW LIKELY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS
NRN MT/SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE NRN RCKYS
IN RESPONSE TO WA/ORE SPEED MAX.  BY 12Z SUNDAY EXPECT THAT OVERALL
SYSTEM WILL HAVE EVOLVED INTO A FAIRLY STRONG POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM ERN MB SW INTO WRN WY/ERN ID.  ELSEWHERE...RIDGES
WILL PERSIST INVOF THE 4 CORNERS AND OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST.

AT LWR LEVELS...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD IMPULSE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
SK LATER TODAY AS A NEW LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER SE MT.  THE LATTER
LOW SHOULD MOVE NE ACROSS ND TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS TRAILING COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES SE ACROSS THE NRN PLNS.

...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO THE DAKS...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NE AHEAD OF LEAD NRN RCKYS
IMPULSE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION/STORMS OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING.  THIS ACTIVITY
MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BY MIDDAY AS
LLJ READJUSTS W IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES AND CONTINUED EWD
MOVEMENT OF WA/ORE SPEED MAX.  ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.

BOUNDARY LAYER NOW OVER SD AND THE MID/UPR MS VLY SHOULD SPREAD N/NW
INTO ND LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...BENEATH STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
/EML/ ADVECTED NE OFF THE RCKYS.  COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
OVER MUCH OF ND/FAR ERN MT AND NW SD BY MID AFTERNOON ...WITH MLCAPE
RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG.  THE EML WILL... HOWEVER...MAINTAIN
A STRONG CAP OVER REGION AND LIMIT SURFACE BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS FARTHER NE INTO
CANADA.

NEVERTHELESS...FORCED UPLIFT ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT AND
SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ALOFT SUGGEST THAT BEST CHANCE FOR
SURFACE BASED STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVER NRN
ND.  IF STORMS DO INDEED FORM IN THIS AREA...40+ KT DEEP SHEAR AND
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/HIGH
WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF STORMS THIS PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
IN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT OVER CNTRL/ERN MT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT STRENGTHENS DOWNSTREAM FROM AMPLIFYING WA/ORE
DISTURBANCE.  STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME CAP AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW
BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY HAIL.  THIS
ACTIVITY COULD CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR TWO SQUALL LINES THAT MOVE E
INTO ND/NW SD LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY.

...UPR MS VLY...
SCATTERED...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS MAY FORM LATER TODAY INVOF WEAK
WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF ERN SD/MN AND NRN IA. PRESENCE OF MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2000 J PER KG/ AND MODEST SHEAR
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS THAT
BRIEFLY ROTATE..POSING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL.

...SE AZ...
STLT DATA INDICATE THAT ERN AZ/WRN NM AREA HAS MOISTENED SOMEWHAT
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS.  SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF 4 CORNERS RIDGE
SHOULD FAVOR NNELY MID LEVEL FLOW OVER REGION.
COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A
STORM CLUSTER OR TWO WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

..CORFIDI.. 07/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.