[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152004
SWODY1
SPC AC 152002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN
30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE
PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC
45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW
P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 30 E INL ...CONT... 20
WNW ART 10 NNE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL
55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW
25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 25 WNW END 30 SSW ICT 10 SSW EMP MKC
25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SSW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NNE
CVS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE NWRN STATES THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PAC
NW TO SRN AND ERN CANADA.  GENERALLY WEAK FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF
THE U.S. WILL PREVAIL.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO ERN SD/NERN NEB...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NERN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD AND NRN NEB...WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/
REINFORCED LAKE BREEZE EXTENDING FROM NWRN WI INTO CENTRAL MN. AIR
MASS ALONG/S OF THESE BOUNDARIES HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. 
SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW OVER SRN CANADA EXTENDED INTO
NRN MN...AND WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS.  WEAK LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
AND OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FARTHER S/SW ACROSS
SRN MN/ERN SD INTO NRN NEB.  THIS FORECAST WILL THUS MAINTAIN THE
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES...WITH THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
NERN MN INTO NRN WI WHERE SHEAR/CAPE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN MN AND EXTREME NWRN WI...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 1758.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WY...SELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONTINUED
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS REGION WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
WY/WRN SD SWD INTO CO INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...GIVEN THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAPPING INVERSION.  WEAK TO MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE
MULTICELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN MT TO
ERN CO WHERE THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE INTO THE
EVENING.

...AZ...
ENELY STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N WILL SUPPORT A
TENDENCY FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MOUNTAINS TO PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT VALLEYS.
VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AZ INTO FAR SWRN NM. 
STRONG SURFACE HEATING INTO THE VALLEYS WEST AND SOUTH OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS TO AROUND 50
DEGREES...SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  THUS WILL CONTINUE THE
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR DOWNBURST WINDS INTO THE EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EWD TO MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES...
LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH/REMNANTS OF DENNIS...WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE
OH VALLEY TO TX.  MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT EXTENSIVE
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND/OR NEAR WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTERS.  WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS.

..PETERS.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.