[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151615
SWODY1
SPC AC 151613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 S GBN 20 ESE GBN
30 W PHX 55 SSW PRC 65 ENE BLH 60 WSW EED 20 S DAG 25 N RAL 30 SSE
PMD 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC
45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM ...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW
P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 20
WNW ART 10 NNE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL
55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45 W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CVS 45 W PVW
25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE
MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30
NNE CVS.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
BETWEEN THE LARGE UPPER HIGH INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND RIDGE VICINITY
E COAST...A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTS FROM GREAT LAKES SWWD TO TX. A
STRONGER TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PAC NW INTO WRN MT BY END OF
PERIOD.  MUCH OF CONUS IS UNDER A RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME AT THE
SURFACE WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE FROM NRN MN SWWD INTO ERN SD.
THERE IS ALSO WEAK UPSLOPE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN WAKE OF SHALLOW
SURFACE HIGH MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/WRN SD.

...NRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED CAP WILL DAMPEN THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH THE SELY UPSLOPE SUPPORTS A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN WY INTO MT THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR GENERALLY
LESS THAN 25 KT ALONG WITH THE CAPPING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR 
STORMS DEVELOPING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE
REDUCED SEVERE THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS REACHING SEVERE POTENTIAL
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PRIMARILY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN.

...UPPER MS VALLEY ...
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MN INTO ERN SD WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE AIR MASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHEAR IS ALSO RATHER
WEAK...SUPPORTING PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT.

...AZ...
ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE SRN AZ AS NOTED ON SURFACE DEWPOINT
CHANGES AS WELL AS THE GPS PWV DATA FROM AZ AND SONORA. WITH ELY
STEERING FLOW AROUND UPPER HIGH TO THE N...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY
FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP VICINITY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...TO THEN PROPAGATE INTO SURROUNDING DESERT
VALLEYS.  THUS WILL CONTINUE THE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR
DOWNBURST WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..HALES/GUYER.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.