[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151230
SWODY1
SPC AC 151228

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW
DEN 40 SE DGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE PSM
...CONT... 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE
FAR 20 SE INL ...CONT... 35 E RWL 35 WNW WRL 55 NW RIW 45 WNW LND 45
W RKS 35 E VEL CAG 45 WSW LAR 35 E RWL ...CONT... 30 NNE CVS 45 W
PVW 25 E PVW 25 NNW CDS 35 NW CSM 15 WNW END 25 N BVO 55 NNE JLN 20
ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 50 SW GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO
30 NNE CVS ...CONT... 75 S GBN 30 SSE PHX 15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75
SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 35 S DRA 50 SW DRA 30 ENE NID 20 SE NID
30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR 25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40
E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45 SE BNO 30 NNW BKE 25 NE GEG
40 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HI
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS PERIOD AS
FAIRLY STRONG UPR LOW NOW OFF THE BC CST PROGRESSES E/SE TO THE
BC/AB BORDER.  FARTHER E...WEAK POSITIVE TILT TROUGH EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY FROM MI TO TX.

SHALLOW NRN PLNS COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY SE AND WEAKEN
OVER MN/SE SD AND NEB. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE SHAPE LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER ID/MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS IN RESPONSE TO UPR
SYSTEM CROSSING BC.

...ERN WY/ERN CO/WRN NEB/WRN SD...
LIGHT ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING SE INTO CNTRL NEB. THIS WILL
ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPR 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HI PLAINS. 
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE HEATING SHOULD
BOOST MEAN AFTERNOON MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG.

UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND/OR INVOF LEE TROUGH OVER ERN WY/NRN CO/WRN NEB
AND WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.  DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE PROMOTED BY UPR
IMPULSE APPARENT IN WV IMAGERY NOW CROSSING WY...ALTHOUGH FORCING
WITH THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE MOVED BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK
HEATING.  AT ANY RATE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY YIELD A FEW CELLS
WITH HIGH WIND/HAIL AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP E/SEWD.  PROXIMITY OF UPR
RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEP NNWLY SHEAR QUITE MODEST /AOB 30 KTS/...AND
SHOULD MITIGATE OVERALL COVERAGE/DEGREE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SEVERE THREAT.

...ERN SD/MN/WRN WI
SCATTERED STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT IN ZONE OF
WEAKENING DEEP SHEAR/CONVERGENCE FROM MN SWWD INTO SD AS SURFACE
HEATING BREAKS CAP.  MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT
WEAKNESS OF SHEAR AND ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION/SEVERITY.

...E CNTRL/SE AZ...
FAIRLY DEEP ENELY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SE AZ THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
SRN FRINGE OF UT HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR WSW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE ERN RIM COUNTRY AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. 
COUPLED WITH EXPECTED DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER REGION
...A FEW FORWARD-PROPAGATING CELLS COULD YIELD STRONG LOCAL GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

...WRN/CNTRL MT TONIGHT...
A FEW STORMS COULD FORM TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT
AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ALONG COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING BC TROUGH.  UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY AND
SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD CONFINE ANY SEVERE THREAT TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS MID LEVEL WSW FLOW INCREASES
TO AOA 50 KTS.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.