[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150515
SWODY1
SPC AC 150513

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE
DGW 20 NNW 81V 25 WNW REJ 60 ESE REJ 45 WNW VTN 45 E SNY AKO 20 NNW
DEN 40 SE DGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW RWL 35 WNW WRL
35 WSW COD 50 NNE BPI 50 ENE EVW 35 E VEL CAG 45 NE CAG 20 NNW RWL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 10 NNE
PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW PVW 55 W CSM 15
NNE BVO 55 NNE JLN 20 ESE MKC 25 NNW TOP 20 S CNK 25 WSW HLC 45 SSW
GLD 55 N CAO 15 SSW CAO 30 NW PVW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S GBN 30 SSE PHX
15 NNW PHX 45 WNW PHX 75 SE EED 30 ESE EED 30 S LAS 40 NNW DRA 55
SSW TPH 45 N NID 15 SSW NID 30 N RAL 15 NNW RAL 30 SSE PMD 25 N OXR
25 NE SBA 25 NNW BFL FAT 40 E SCK 60 NNE SAC 30 N RNO 40 WSW WMC 45
SE BNO 45 N BKE 25 NE GEG 40 N 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 20 NNW P24
25 WSW BIS 35 E MBG 15 ENE ABR 35 SE FAR 20 SE INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CO THROUGH WY AND WRN
SD AND NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN
U.S. AND A BROAD UPPER LOW IN THE EAST. STRONGER BELT OF WLYS WILL
REMAIN NEAR U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE ENEWD WITH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NW FRIDAY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MT FRIDAY NIGHT. NRN PART
OF COLD FRONT NOW FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB WILL CONTINUE
SLOWLY SEWD INTO CNTRL MN. SWRN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD STALL
AND MAY BEGIN MOVING NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH WRN SD AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS DURING THE EVENING.

...WRN SD...ERN WY...NERN CO AND WRN NEB...

ESELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF AND S OF SURFACE
FRONT FROM ERN CO NWD THROUGH ERN WY AND WRN SD. THE RESULTING LOW
LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL FAVOR BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S PERSISTING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE
FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND WY AS WELL AS OVER THE BLACK HILLS OF SD AS
SURFACE HEATING ENHANCES OROGRAPHIC FORCING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP EWD AND MAY INTENSIFY AS THEY
ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY. SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NWLY
20 TO 25 KT AT 6 KM WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
STORMS TO ORGANIZE AS THEY MOVE EWD OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
THROUGH MID EVENING. 

...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SERN SD...

DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MODEST CONVERGENCE...A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM MN SWWD THROUGH
SD AS SURFACE HEATING PROMOTES DESTABILIZATION AND A WEAKENING CAP.
WITH THE STRONGER BELT OF WLYS REMAINING NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK. MULTICELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
AND MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. 

...CNTRL MT...

INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED STORMS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS WRN THROUGH CNTRL MT ABOVE A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY. GIVEN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE
WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY WILL BE AT A MAXIMUM...ONLY LOW
PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.