[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141633
SWODY1
SPC AC 141632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
HUL 25 WSW PWM 15 W ORH 40 SW ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 65 SW PRC
45 N IGM 35 SW P38 30 NW DRA 30 S BIH 40 WSW BIH 50 WNW TVL 30 SSW
SVE 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 40 ENE EVW 50 S COD 50 ENE 4BQ 60 NNW MOT
...CONT... 30 NW MQT 40 N SUX 20 WSW LHX 35 SW CAO 45 S DHT 25 WNW
CSM END 25 SW TOP 40 SSW MBL 20 WNW APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THRU EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NERN
NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NWRN MN....

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKING PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE U.S WITH LARGE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST CENTERED ON THE CENTRAL
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.  THIS HAS FORCED THE MAIN STORM TRACK ALONG
THE CANADA/U.S. BORDER AND SRN QUEBEC INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. 
THIS HAS ALSO LEFT A LARGE ELONGATED TROUGH /MUCH OF THE REMNANTS OF
 DENNIS/ FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD THRU TX.

...NERN NY STATE INTO ME...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC INTO THE
NERN GREAT LAKES.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND
TODAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIE ALONG WRN SECTIONS
INTO NERN NY TONIGHT.  AN ISOLATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN
MOVING JUST S OF E ACROSS PARTS OF NERN NY...HOWEVER WITH SOME
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.  RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE RATES COULD BE
AROUND 8C/KM.  THIS WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE LINE AFTER
MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM NERN NY STATE INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL ME.

...PARTS OF THE ERN NRN PLAINS INTO NWRN MN...

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ND
SWWD ACROSS NWRN SD INTO CENTRAL WY.  AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SOME WITH LIMITED HEATING TODAY INHIBITED SLIGHTLY BY
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ND AT THIS TIME.  SBCAPE EXPECTED
TO REACH 2000-2500 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN
MN AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROJECTED TO BE NEAR 8C/KM INDICATING THE MAIN
THREATS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER NERN ND/NWRN MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN INTO SRN MANITOBA RAISES
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO NEAR 50 KT ACROSS THE AREA.

...GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND OH/TN VALLEYS...

TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION AS REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM DENNIS REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND ERN U.S.  ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZES TROPICAL
REGIME.

..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.