[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 141230
SWODY1
SPC AC 141229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE
HUL 30 NE LCI 20 NW EEN ALB 10 WSW UCA 30 NNW SYR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E
INL 60 W AXN 35 E PIR 30 NNE PHP 65 SSE Y22 70 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG
40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28
15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80
S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF ELY
60 ESE U31 25 NNW U31 15 SSW WMC 50 NNE BAM 45 NNE EKO 30 NNE ENV 30
W OGD 15 ENE OGD 30 S RKS 60 E JAC 40 N WRL 10 W 4BQ 35 NE MLS 25
ESE OLF 65 NNE OLF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN
NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL SD/ERN ND/NW MN....

...UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT.  A PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT THIS MORNING...AND THIS PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY.  THE RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAINFALL AND
MOIST PROFILES WILL TEND TO LIMIT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL
ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. 
THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.

...NRN PLAINS AREA...
OUTFLOW WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL ND AND NW
SD...WELL E OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NW ND AND ERN MT. THE
INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL/ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE BY MIDDAY ACROSS ND AS A WEAK LEAD SPEED MAX EJECTS ENEWD
AND AWAY FROM THE STEEP LAPSE RATE SOURCE REGION OVER THE NRN
ROCKIES.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN ND AND CENTRAL SD
AS DAYTIME HEATING AND ASCENT REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN
ADVANCE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM MT.  MLCAPE VALUES
ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND MODEST DEEP LAYER FLOW/SHEAR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL.

...MID ATLANTIC/SE/GULF STATES TODAY...
AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS
OF DENNIS OVER KY...WSWWD TO A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER OVER OK/NW
TX.  LARGELY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY IN A
BROAD BAND NEAR AND E/SE OF THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM TX EWD
ACROSS THE GULF STATES...AND NWD ACROSS THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THIS AREA
AND THE MID LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED STORMS WITH STRONG/DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

..THOMPSON/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.