[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 140556
SWODY1
SPC AC 140555

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
ELO 35 NE AXN 15 ENE ATY 20 W HON 30 NW PIR 40 E Y22 70 N DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
EPM 25 E LCI 20 NE POU 10 WNW MSV 15 ENE ITH 30 NNW SYR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 95 NW CMX 25 SW OTG
40 SW YKN 30 SE BBW 20 NW GLD 10 S LAA 35 SW LBL 30 S LBL 40 NW P28
15 ESE OMA 10 ESE RST 20 WSW CWA 25 NNE MBL 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 80
S GBN 25 SE PHX 10 WNW PRC 40 NE IGM 15 SSW CDC MLF 50 NNW MLF 55
ENE ELY 55 SE EKO 40 S BAM WMC 40 SW OWY 40 ESE OWY 45 N ENV 45 W
OGD 10 N OGD 40 N EVW 25 WSW COD 30 SE BIL 15 NNW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 25
SSE SDY 60 NNW ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SWRN U.S. AND A WEAK BUT BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH MT WILL CONTINUE EWD
THROUGH ND ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT WHILE A DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NERN STATES.


...NERN STATES...

POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY DELAY
SURFACE HEATING UNTIL LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND
COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ONCE SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. LOW
LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NE OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS
THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. A WEAK CAP AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM NY NEWD
THROUGH MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. STORMS WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING LINE
SEGMENTS AS WELL AS FEW SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.



...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...

A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD THROUGH SRN
CANADA AND ND. PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE AROUND
2000 J/KG. PRIMARY FORCING AND LOW LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NWD INTO CANADA DURING THE DAY. THIS AND
POTENTIAL FOR A CAP SUGGEST NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON WHEN STRONG WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE CAP. MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND W OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION.
POTENTIAL FOR LINE/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING.


...SRN STATES....

POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
MULTICELL STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE SERN
U.S. THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL/JEWELL.. 07/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.